Disappointment retirees Central Statistics Office. Watch out for the appraisal

The Central Bureau of Statistics announced, on Friday, that “the annual price index of consumer goods and services for retired and retired families for the year 2021 compared to 2020 amounted to 104.9. (price increase by 4.9%)It is strange that on the same day the Central Bureau of Statistics (GUS) announced that the General Consumer Inflation Index (CPI) For the previous year as a whole, it was 5.1 percent, or 0.2 percentage points. Percentage more.

Retirement inflation may differ from general inflation because of the basket of products and services our seniors use. However, it is very rare for the reading to be lower than the classic CPI.

“I can say that’s interesting information. I don’t remember pension inflation being lower than core inflation before.” He said “Gazeta Wyborcza” Dr. ukasz Wacławik from the Faculty of Management at the AGH University of Science and Technology in Krakow.

“The GUS data is very interesting, I am very surprised. If such an indicator was taken into account, inflation would devour much faster. The question is whether the government would really want to value the utility in a greater way, in which case it seems necessary.” – Oscar Sobolevsky, an analyst at the Retirement Institute convinces on Twitter.

– At the end of January, when the exact inflation rates are known, we will know what the pension index will be in 2022. We estimate it will be at least 7 percent. I explained.

It would be a good decision, since economists have no doubt that the increase in prices will not leave our country so quickly. “This is not the end of hyperinflation. It will exceed 9 percent in January. o/o (maybe close to 10% yoy due to new year listing price changes). Subsequently, inflation will be restrained by the anti-inflation shield (in our opinion, in February its translation will reach inflation of just over 3pp), PKO BP economists wrote on Friday.

In their opinion, the price hike has not said the last word in our country yet, but after its increase in January, it will give the anti-inflation shield a period of six months.

“This should allow the MPC to end the monetary policy tightening cycle in March. Meanwhile, the expiration of the shields would correlate with a return to higher inflation readings. In our opinion, this means that the possibility of an extension (at least partial) is high, and therefore our forecast for average annual inflation (7.1% in 2022) may change.“- Assessed by specialists of the largest bank in Poland.