Experts reassure franchisees: “Black Thursday” does not threaten us. At the end of the year, the Swiss franc may become cheaper

The Polsat Plus group and the Polsat Foundation together for children from Ukraine

Some media, following experts, say that There may be a significant hike in interest rates in Switzerland soon in response to higher inflation. Currently, fate in this matter is in the balance, and according to Fabio Sonderer of the Swiss National Bank (SNB), the decision will be announced on June 16 this year. Therefore, in the public space, there are more and more questions about the exchange rate of the Swiss franc in the coming months. At the end of the first week of June, it was below PLN 4.40. Dr. Przemyslav Kojic, chief economist at Dom Maklerski X-Trade Brokers, does not expect major changes in the coming months. As the expert points out, its base scenario for the second half of the year is a price just above 4.50 zlotys to the Swiss franc, and possibly 4.60 zlotys.

– I do not think that the value of the franc is rising significantly, because most of the central banks of the world are tightening their monetary policy now. On the other hand, the Swiss National Bank has a policy that cares more about how the euro changes. Instead, I expect that changes in the Swiss Franc exchange rate will follow changes related to that rate. I think the franc would cost more than 4.50 PLN, and maybe more about 4.70 PLN, if I were to make a forecast – Professor comments. Krzysztof Petsch, an economist from Lazarski University.

On the other hand, economist Marek Zuber believes that if Poland gets money from the KPO, the value of the zloty will increase in the long run. In such a situation, the Swiss franc will be cheaper than it is now, and it is also possible that the exchange rate will be lower than PLN 4.20. However, if the franc rises in value, it will only be for a short time. Interest rates will also be raised in our country. The only unknown to what level.

– Exchange rates move fairly quickly, so expecting certain values ​​is guesswork. It’s easier to talk about the directions they can go. There are two basic components of the franc. The first is economic, and thus interest rates and central bank actions. And here the franc should be much weaker. The second factor, on the other hand, is geopolitics. If we assume the scenario of Russia’s use of tactical nuclear weapons, the franc will rise strongly. And if the front is frozen or there is a truce, the Swiss franc will weaken significantly – assures Piotr Kuczyński, financial markets analyst at DI Xelion.

Swiss franc / Polish zloty

• Purchasing price
  4.4485

• sale rate
  4.4525

• the above
  4.4552

• minute
  4.4263

• Average exchange rate
  4.4505

• Reference price
  4.4311

The Swiss currency exchange rate is of particular interest to the Poles who have borrowed in this currency. It is also noted by lawyers who specialize in these cases. According to legal advisor Adrian Goski of law firm SubiGo, if the SNB raises interest rates by more than 0.25 percentage point, we can expect significant volatility in the CHF/PLZ exchange rate. As the expert points out, an increase in the exchange rate is, of course, higher premiums for franchisees and a significant increase in the value of the debt stock. This could have the effect of increasing interest in suing banks.

– If the exchange rate of the franc rises sharply, the change will be felt for borrowers. Fortunately, many of them prepare for such conditions and buy francs at the times when they are cheaper. Most importantly, people who currently have foreign currency loans can also count on legal protection. In the event of the commencement of court proceedings to cancel the contract, it is possible to suspend the obligation to pay installments until their completion. Thanks to this, the costs involved in starting the case do not burden the family budget – says attorney Jacob Bartosyak of MBM Legal.

Adrian Goska stresses that every negative situation in the currency market is causing more uncertainty as we deal with a broader wave of lawsuits. The expert adds that the premium increase is a much smaller burden – in the short run – than the value of the capital stock itself. Even after fifteen years of regular repayment, it may be higher than the day the contract was concluded. This happens with a significant increase in the exchange rate of the Swiss franc / Polish zloty. This significantly affects the legal actions of borrowers against banks.

– The defect of loan agreements is manifested precisely in the fact that the amount of debt and the amount of installments can grow without restrictions. The first step that customers take to meet the increase in premiums is to independently purchase foreign currency at a rate better than the rate set by the creditor bank. Another way is to increase knowledge about the shortcomings of these loan agreements, consult with a lawyer, and finally – take the case to court – adds the expert from MBM Legal.

Many people remember the situation on January 15, 2015. Then the Swiss franc rose after the Swiss stopped defending their currency.. The media described it as “Black Thursday”. At that time, the Frank rose from 3.50 PLN to 5.19 PLN, and at the end of the day the price fell to 4.31 PLN. As Dr. Kwiecień argues, we now have a completely different situation, because the rate is unregulated. There are also no major market disruptions, such as the collapse of Lehman Brothers in 2008. The expert admits that this year the franc exchange rate has already risen to PLN 5. However, this was due to the start of the aggression against Ukraine. Such events are unpredictable, which is why the market reacts in this way.

– This year we got 5 PLN for every euro because of panic. If China hits, say, Taiwan, the Swiss franc will also be 5 Polish zlotys or more. But I don’t assume that kind of situation. Without these factors, crossing the aforementioned barrier is highly unlikely. In my opinion, the weight of the current period is much lower than it was a few years ago. Another thing is that the situation with the so-called Black Thursday was quite unusual, it surprised us all – adds Marek Zuber.

a. Besch also asserts that the launch of the franc exchange rate in 2015 suddenly led to the opening of the exchange rate. The expert does not assume a scenario in which the Swiss franc costs more than PLN 5. There must have been serious mistakes on the part of monetary and fiscal policy in our country, and so far there have been no mistakes. Nor should there be any trends that would lead to such a situation. Politicians know that it can end, for example, with social protests. And given the upcoming elections, they won’t let that happen.

– I suppose at the end of the year the zloty will be much stronger than now, of course given the current situation. We are already waiting for funds from the KPO and this is evident in the currency market in recent days. The euro won’t reach Poland overnight, but it probably will this year. These funds will not be exchanged, as is usually the case in NBP, that is, outside the market and without affecting the exchange rate. They will be exchanged on the market, which was announced a few months ago by the head of Glapiński. Expect this will strengthen the zloty – summarizes Piotr Kuczyński.

INTERIA.PL Business on Twitter. Join us and read the economic news

Check also: