State of the Holiday Economy. Inflation, wages, unemployment and interest rates

“State of the Economy” is a monthly series of articles collecting the most important data on the Polish economy from the point of view of citizens.

This is the state of the Polish economy according to the latest data – for the month of June 2022.

Inflation in June by 15.5 percent. On an annual basis, that is, compared to June 2021. And on a monthly basis, that is, compared to May 2022, prices have increased by 1.5%.

Inflation in June was mainly affected by higher fuel prices: by 9.4%. On a monthly basis, i.e. against May 2022. In contrast, fuel prices increased by 46.7% year-on-year. (i.e. compared to June 2021).

In June, prices for energy carriers increased significantly: by 3 percent. Month to month and 35 percent. every year.

Food rose 0.7 percent in June. compared to May, by 14 percent. every year.

According to estimates by economists from the Polish Economic Institute, inflation is expected to peak in August, when the price increase index will reach 16.5%. However, the most recent – July – National Bank of Poland report It indicates that peak prices will peak at the end of 2022, and then inflation could reach around 18 percent, and in the worst case scenario up to 27 percent.

In June, the Monetary Policy Council raised interest rates by 75 basis points to 6%, and in July by another 50 basis points, which means the reference rate is now 6.5%.

The interest rates are currently:

• reference – 6.5 percent,
• Lombard – 7 percent,
• deposit – 6%,
• rediscount of promissory notes – 6.55%,
• Promissory note discount – 6.60 percent

Traditionally, an increase in interest rates has meant an increase in loan installments. How much can the loan installments be increased? in Analysts pointed to the accounts of Money.plAssuming that WIBOR 3M grows by a similar amount at which rates are raised, i.e. to the level of 7.6%, and the margin will reach 2.3%, the interest rate on the loan may rise to 9.9%.

As a result, analysts estimate, it will be necessary She returns the bank 35 zlotys more per month for every 100,000 borrowers PLN, which amounts to 300 thousand. A PLN loan gives a higher premium of PLN 105with a loan of half a million PLN 175, and with a loan of one million – about PLN 350.

However, it must be emphasized that should inflation continue to rise, NBP Governor Adam Glapinski announced that there could be another hike in interest rates. Bank economists, in turn, are convinced that such an increase will occur, perhaps in September due to “Constantly rising inflation“.

The Central Statistics Office has yet to release June data on wage growth. According to the consensus of analysts interviewed by PAP Biznes, wage growth in the corporate sector in June is expected to reach 13.3%. On an annual basis, that is, compared to June 2021.

In May, the average salary in the enterprise sector (in companies employing more than 9 people) Increased to a total of 6,399.59 PLN. It was a nominal increase (excluding inflation) of 13.5 percent. on an annual basis. However, the inflation rate in May was 13.9%. On an annual basis, which means that the real wage dynamics amounted to -0.33%. on an annual basis. This was the first time since May 2020, when wages grew more slowly than inflation – that is, in effect, rising prices “eat” wage increases.

The Central Statistical Office has not released unemployment data for June yet. However, the Ministry of Family and Social Policy has provided its estimates for June. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, unemployment in June was 4.9 percent, which means it was the lowest since 1990, when it was 4.5 percent in August.

According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Policy, unemployment in June decreased by 0.2 percentage points. Compared to May, year on year fell by 1.1 percentage points. Unemployment in May It was, according to GUS 5.1 per cent

According to the ministry’s data, in June there were 819.7 thousand unemployed people registered in employment offices.

• 7.35 zlotys for Pb95;
• PLN 8.07 for Pb98;
• PLN 7.55 for ON (diesel);
• 3.37 zlotys for self-propelled gas LPG.

At the end of June, fuel prices were still there record high – It amounted to 8.54-8.69 PLN / liter of Pb98 gasoline and 7.79-7.91 PLN / liter of Pb95 gasoline. On the other hand, diesel oil costs PLN 7.89-8.01, and auto-liquefied petroleum gas PLN 3.41-3.52 / liter.

But since then, fuel prices have fallen somewhat. This was helped by several promotions for gasoline, which were introduced, among others by OrlinAnd the BPAnd the lotus or stations moya.

• 7.46-7.57 zlotys / liter gasoline Pb95;
• PLN 7.52-7.63/l of diesel oil;
• 3.30 – 3.41 zlotys of LPG.

Some data – incl. On Unemployment or Inflation – published by the Central Statistical Office, is delayed by about a month. This means that in July, the Central Statistical Office publishes data for June, in August – for July, etc. Only some of them are released at the end of the month – then we provide the estimated data or data expected by the market. The estimated or projected data will be updated on an ongoing basis along with subsequent publications of the Central Statistical Office.