Analyst warns: The strong zloty is starting to harm the economy! Find out the selling price of the euro and the dollar at the end of this year. – Forecasts of peacekeeping operations. Currency rates on December 8

Currency rates on Friday, December 8, 2023. The price of the dollar (USD/PLN) is 4.0202 Polish zloty, the price of the euro (EUR/PLN) is about 4.3382 Polish zloty, and the price of the Swiss franc (CHF/PLN) today is 4.5982 Polish zloty. For one British pound (GBP/PLN) we now have to pay approximately 5.0656.

• Interest Rate Market – Yields continue to fall, and the risk of a correction increases.
• Currency market – PLN was a little weaker, the trend picture did not change much.

On Wednesday, the zloty weakened, the EUR/PLN rate rose to around 4.33 and the USD/PLN rate to 4.02. In the core foreign exchange markets, the dollar continued to rise and the EUR/USD exchange rate fell to 1.0770. Local and global factors influenced the devaluation of the Polish zloty on Wednesday. The latter implies further strengthening of the dollar, thus breaking the local support (1.08) on EUR/USD, which was linked to macro data from Germany (industrial production) that was weaker than market expectations and slightly better data from the euro. Region (retail sales). In our view, the zloty also weakened domestically due to concerns about the Monetary Policy Board’s decision on Wednesday, although this was more related to the message from the Board’s statement, as the market did not tolerate any changes in national interest rates. Perhaps the statements of the head of the PFR, Paweł Borys, also had some impact on the zloty, as he noted that the strength of the Polish currency was starting to hurt the economy, and the break-even point for exports after the pandemic moved from around EUR 4.20/PLN to EUR 4.40-4.45/PLN. After weaker than expected data from the US labor market in the afternoon (ADP report), the market tried to weaken the dollar, which also benefited the PLN, but in the end this attempt turned out to be in vain.

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The weakness of the zloty on Wednesday did not change much in the short and medium-term trends of the major pairs with PLN, as the current corrections, especially in EUR/PLN, took the form of sideways trends. We therefore stick to our opinion that at the end of this year the zloty may rise further (EUR/PLN reaching around 4.2850-4.30), especially if EUR/USD starts an upward correction, for example after testing the subsequent technical support extending between 1.07 and 1.0730.

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In the local interest rate market, Wednesday’s session saw continued declines in Treasury yields (5-9 basis points), and in the underlying markets, bond yields mostly fell (1-5 basis points), although mainly at longer durations. .

After several weeks of sharp declines in yields, Wednesday in the core FI markets brought a certain slowdown in current trends. Markets reacted moderately to macro data from Europe and the United States, which were favorable for possible interest rate cuts, and their readings showed that the economic situation in the Old Continent remains weak, and the US labor market is feeling increasing pressure from higher interest rates. Global financial markets also did not react strongly to the subsequent declines in crude oil prices, which fell to their lowest levels in 5 months, supporting the process of slowing global inflation. The domestic foreign investment market was stronger than the underlying markets, and yields continued to fall along the entire curve, slightly more strongly in the middle. FRA contracts also fell significantly, especially in longer periods (7-9 basis points), showing that the process of the Polish market’s withdrawal from tighter expectations is progressing despite the fact that the Monetary Policy Board left interest rates unchanged at its Wednesday meeting. The statement following the meeting was broadly similar to the statement issued in November. We may learn more at the National Bank of Japan President’s Conference on Thursday, which, along with industrial production data from Germany and subsequent data from the US labor market, could have a major impact. Influencing market sentiment.

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Yield shifts mainly in the underlying FI markets are already significant, and the markets appear to be increasingly technically overbought, and this could intensify corrective trends in the coming days. In light of this, the monthly data released by the US labor market (Friday, December 8) may be important, even if it is stronger than market expectations.

Chart of the Day: Yield shifts in core FI markets are already significant, and correction risks are increasing.

Source: Refinitiv

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NBP currency rates December 8, 2023: current currency table

Average current foreign currency rates in Polish złoty specified in Clause 2 points 1 and 2 of Resolution No. 51/2002 of the Board of Directors of the Polish National Bank dated September 23, 2002 on the method of calculating and announcing current foreign currency rates (Journal of Laws of the Polish National Bank for the year 2022. Clauses 10 and 21):

Tab No. 212/A/NPB/2023 dated 07-12-2023

The above schedule was published on Thursday and will be in effect until noon on Friday. The Central Bank publishes the new currency table every day (on working days) between 11:45 a.m. and 12:15 p.m.