The dollar reached 3.89 Polish zlotys on Tuesday morning. The last time the US currency traded at this level was in 2021. Taking into account the last six months, the dollar is cheaper than it was in the summer (it reached a value of less than PLN 3.95). Weakness in November led to a decline below PLN 3.99.
The euro cost PLN 4.32 on Tuesday morning. Over the past few months, the cheapest EU currency was in mid-December (it fell to PLN 4.29), but the level of 4.32 was already recorded in November.
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The dollar is the cheapest since the pandemic
XTB experts emphasize that it is difficult to clearly point out the reasons for the weakness of the Polish Zloty. Due to the holidays, economic calendars are almost empty. It is worth noting the strengthening of the euro against the dollar.
“If the upward trend in the EUR/USD exchange rate continues, the zloty may continue to rise. It is worth noting that the USDPLN exchange rate is still below PLN 3.94, This technically supports the scenario of further declines– Lukas Stefanik, financial markets analyst at XTB, wrote in his analysis.
He also confirmed that the EUR/Zloty pair is still consolidating. “However, the long-term trend for this pair is also bearish,” he emphasizes.
According to the expert, a permanent price break above the PLN 4.40-4.41 area could change the balance of power on the chart. “Previously, the area around PLN 4.36 should also be treated as resistance. Today in the morning, the dollar costs PLN 3.9195, the euro PLN 4.3330, the franc PLN 4.5980, and the pound PLN 4.9895,” he emphasizes.
The dollar is constantly losing
The dollar's current weakness is stronger than it was during the holidays. The US currency achieved two peaks in value last year – In March, when the price reached the level of PLN 4.50 (but stopped falling by PLN 2-3) and in October. Then it reached PLN 4.42. The difference is significant, exceeding 50 cents.
What justifies the decline in US currency prices? Although the world has not forgotten the situation in the Middle East, crude oil prices are still far from their peak – they fluctuate (depending on the type). About $75-80. per barrel. At the beginning of December, prices fell below the $70 level, so there has been an increase since then. However, just look at the data released in September, when the value of raw materials reached US$95. – The most expensive since 2022 – Let's see that the market situation is still not the worst.
The signals coming from the US economy do not indicate a tightening of central bank policy. Experts expect a smooth decline for the economy.
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