If there was one word to describe what's happening in the markets this week, it would be “volatility.” On Monday there were big increases, on Tuesday there were even bigger decreases, and on Wednesday there were bold increases again, but with a low turnover. As a result, despite high volatility, the WIG20 is essentially stagnant.
WIG20 was up 2.07%, and WIG was 1.77% higher. In contrast, mWIG40 rose by 1.58% and WIG80 rose by 0.2%. The turnover exceeded PLN 861 million, of which PLN 654 million related to the WIG20.
The disastrous Tuesday in the stock markets seems to have been forgotten. The data and inflation from the US, which shook prices the day before, may have been absorbed by investors who realized that interest rate cuts would come sooner or later. Core markets saw gains in stock indices on Wednesday, offsetting the decline seen on Tuesday. Bond yields remained higher after increasing from the previous day, and the dollar to the zloty was still above PLN 4.05.
Currency pressures did not bother Wall Street this time and indices recorded a strong recovery. The market released data on national GDP for the fourth quarter and a set of data on GDP in the European Union. The size of the increases on the Warsaw Stock Exchange was determined by the growth of the banking sector. NBP showed aggregate data for 2023, showing that banks in Poland made 160% profits last year. More than in 2022
Therefore, I have a lot of volatility this week, which, however, leads to consolidation after the dynamic increases since mid-January. The WIG20 has been moving between 2290 points and 2380 points for several days. It is difficult to predict in which direction this range will go, but it will likely be dictated by the narrative coming from external markets. But the rise from Wednesday was not confirmed by trading value, which makes the nature of this rebound unconvincing.
“We will likely have to wait until the second half of the year for the Fed to start cutting interest rates. The issue is not whether the Fed will cut rates this year, because that is almost certain,” said Daniela Hathorne, senior market analyst at Capital.com. “At this point, how many cuts will be made?”
In the WIG20, the strongest prices were Alior (4.44%), Mbank (4.42%) and Santander (4.16%), which in turn was the weakest bank in terms of blue chips on Tuesday. Other major banks had a great session as well: Pekao (3.16%), PKO (2.81%).
The main theme of Wednesday's session, i.e. recovery, was evident in the price of Pepco (3.59%), which fell more than 9% on Tuesday. It turns out that Qube Research & Technologies Limited may have been responsible for part of the offer, which again appeared in the company's shares with an official sale (0.5%) on the KNF registry.
New news has come from KGHM (0.73%), as the Supervisory Board has authorized Supervisory Board member, Zbigniew Bryja, to temporarily serve as Chairman of the Board of KGHM.
Only the LPP rate was below the line in the WIG20 (-1.75%), so this week.
In lower market segments, Handloy Bank showed preliminary results (0.19%), where net profit amounted to PLN 449.4 million and turned out to be slightly below market expectations.
The Supervisory Board of Tauron (1.03%) announced the qualification procedures for the position of Chairman of the Board of Directors. According to Polityka Insight, Grzegorz Lot, former vice president of Tauron Głos, and vice president of Polenergia Głos as of 2020, remains the front-runner to take over as president.
In contrast, Sunex's share price fell (-9.49%) after the company's founder and major shareholder offered 2 million shares as part of accelerated book building.
However, after Synketik (7.92%) announced record results, which also exceeded analysts' expectations, the price rose to a new historical peak.
Huge increases were observed on NewConnect, including: Igoria (52.15%), Novina (23.23%), Inflra (37.5%) and decreases such as BSH (-18.76%), Olymp (-9%) or Hemp companies Hemp (-14.98). ) %), La Bocana (-15.62%) and Hemp (-14.25%). The significant adjustments in companies from this sector of the market were related to the huge influx of periodic reports for the fourth quarter, which nearly 180 companies scheduled for the latest possible date.
In contrast, when it comes to NewConnect, it is worth paying attention to the price of Hubtech (-1.02%), whose president was arrested about a month ago due to allegations of involvement in a criminal group, What he described as “Puls Biznesu”.The Company has not previously provided this information in the ESPI system.
Michal Kopecky
