Carlo Massala is a political scientist and military expert, Head of the Department of International Politics at the German Army University in Munich, and Director of the Metis Institute for Strategy and Forecasting. In an interview with T-Online, he pointed out that Ukraine’s allies do not agree on a key issue, which is European security in the event of a Russian victory.
– German Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Ukraine cannot lose. Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk says Russia must lose. “These are two different things,” he commented. – If Tusk says that Russia must lose, this means returning Ukraine to its 1991 borders, including the Crimean Peninsula. He added that as long as Europeans disagree on this issue, there will be no strategy.
When asked about the pressures in the Kharkov and Donetsk regions, he said: “At the moment, Putin’s plan is successful, and I think he was counting on it starting in the winter of 2022.”
The expert noted that for several months the United States was unable to reach an agreement on billions of dollars in aid to Ukraine, and during this time “Europe failed to organize Ukraine’s missing air defense.” He believes that this proves that “European governments are overly sensitive when it comes to allocating greater resources to support Ukraine.”
“The conflict will continue forever.”
The German expert also spoke about what would happen if Donald Trump won the presidential elections in the United States. In this case, Europe will have to step in and fill the gap left by Trump. Do Europeans really do this? That’s another matter, he said. He added that it would also be necessary to increase defense spending.
Carlo Masala was also asked about the scenario in which Ukraine loses the war. In his opinion, “We will have to accept Ukraine into NATO.” —Otherwise, Ukraine will remain the eternal center of the conflict. […] He added that the fighting will be less intense than it is now, but the conflict will continue indefinitely.
He believes that a victory for Vladimir Putin would strengthen the power of Russian imperialism, because “Russia wants more than just Ukraine.” – He delegitimizes the Baltic states, tries to influence Georgia, and threatens Moldova. He said that if Russia wins in Ukraine, it will reach out to all these countries.
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