The Ministry of Finance’s announcement confirms information that came from the ministry a few weeks ago.
“VAT gap estimates for 2022-23, although taking into account the impact of significant systemic changes (including anti-inflation shields) It indicates a significant increase in the gap compared to the level recorded in 2021. “It must be remembered that the VAT gap estimates for 2021-2023 are based on available Central Statistical Office indicators for the entire economy.”
“There are currently no detailed data on the structure of the VAT base for recent years, which means that these estimates will certainly change as more new data is made available by the Central Statistics Office. However, current estimates indicate that as of 2022, there has been a reversal of the long-term trend in reducing the VAT gap in Poland.” – added.
The first signs of a huge jump in the value-added tax gap appeared at the end of last April, on the occasion of the publication of the so-called White Paper on Public Finance.
The PiS government boasted of reducing the value-added tax gap. The MF document shows a decline and then Increased value-added tax gap.
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Ministry of Finance
The years immediately preceding the COVID-19 pandemic were years of high economic growth, driven by good economic conditions and high consumption. This situation has contributed to tax collection, including reducing tax gaps.
We at Business Insider Polska already drew attention to this issue in October 2023, when the PiS government delayed the publication of budget implementation data just before the elections.
– Prime Minister Morawiecki threatened that PiS’s loss of power would mean an increase in the VAT gap. Meanwhile, simple math shows that this gap is actually wideningWhich the government does not want to admit – said the head of the Institute of Public Finance, Dr. Slavomir Dodik, in an interview with us.
The expert explained that the biggest problem in implementing the 2023 budget relates to the income area. – First of all, it concerns value added tax. True, there will be no income from this until July It rose by 5.9 percent, but this is not an advantage, because consumption with high inflation increased by about 11-12 percent.. Therefore, VAT revenues should also increase by this amount, Dodik said.
– In order to meet this year’s forecasts, which have already been revised downward, VAT revenues must be 22% higher each month by the end of the year. Since last year. This is unrealistic, as the economist claimed at the beginning of October. Now his predictions have been confirmed.
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