France. Macron dissolved Parliament, what does that mean? Will Marine Le Pen take power?

According to information provided by the French Ministry of the Interior, 31.36% of voters supported the far-right National Rally party in the European Parliament elections. Only 14.6% of voters cast their votes for the Besoin d’Europe coalition, that is, the list of electoral forces grouped around President Emmanuel Macron. Citizens.

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In response to the decisive victory of the nationalist group led by Marine Le Pen, French President Emmanuel Macron decided to dissolve the French Parliament and order early elections. These will be on June 30 and July 7. The elections were originally scheduled to take place in mid-2027.

When announcing the dissolution of the National Assembly (House of Representatives – ed.), Macron presented this as an “act of courage” on his part. He added that he believes in French voters and “the ability of the French to make the best choice for themselves and for future generations.” In turn, Marine Le Pen welcomed his move “happily” and stated that her party is ready to take power in France. But is it likely that the National Union will seize power? What awaits France after Emmanuel Macron’s decision?

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The last parliamentary elections in France were held in June 2022. As a result, Macron’s party lost its previously independent majority in Parliament, gaining 169 seats in the 577-seat chamber. Thanks to the alliance with the Democratic Movement and the Horizons Party, which granted 81 additional seats, Macron’s party was able to form a minority government. The National Union then became the largest opposition party, winning 88 seats.

What will be the result of the new elections in France? Reuters notes that the president’s unexpected decision means there are no current support polls for individual groups. This makes it difficult to predict the possible composition of the new French parliament.

The National Council is likely to significantly increase the number of its deputies in the new elections, but according to the British newspaper “The Guardian”, it is unlikely that Marine Le Pen’s nationalist party will be able to win an independent parliamentary majority, i.e. 289 seats.

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However, the far right does not need to have an independent majority to form a government – ​​its good electoral results can also enable it to form a majority coalition. In both cases, Emmanuel Macron will have to assign her representative to the position of Prime Minister, Reuters reports.

The possibility of the formation of a government by the National Union will lead to what is called “coexistence”, that is, a situation in which the president and the prime minister come from different political choices.

Reuters notes that such a period of “coexistence” will not be the first in French history. Since the establishment of the Fifth Republic in 1958, cohabitation cases have occurred in France three times. The last time this happened was in 1997, when center-right President Jacques Chirac co-ruled with Socialist Prime Minister Lionel Jospin. However, there has never been a situation in which a pro-European president and a Eurosceptic nationalist parliamentary majority “coexisted.”

See also: What is cohabitation?

The possible formation of a government by right-wing groups and the emergence of coexistence means that real power in France will be divided between the president and the prime minister.

Emmanuel Macron will maintain his leadership role in the areas of defense and foreign policy. The issue of negotiating international treaties will also remain within its jurisdiction. However, the French president’s influence on the shape of domestic policy will be significantly diminished.

In terms of national policy, the new French prime minister will have the greatest influence. What does this mean in practice? During the last elections in 2022, Marine Le Pen’s party supported, among others: ensuring priority access to social housing for French citizens, abolishing the inheritance tax for middle- and low-income families, or changing the procedures for examining asylum applications so that they are evaluated outside France.

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