- The PiS is still leaving its options open regarding remaining in coalition with the Italian Fdl. MEPs are disappointed with the way the Italians have treated them
- Morawiecki said that the chance of PiS remaining in the Eastern European region was 50 percent. On Friday, a PiS member estimated the chance of remaining in the group at 60%.
- There is also a behind-the-scenes battle in which Ursula von der Leyen is looking for support to remain President of the European Commission. It all looks good on paper, but there are many indicators that the Germans will have to look for strange alliances to get the required 361 votes of support.
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The national right is divided. Just a month ago, Viktor Orbán dreamed of creating a huge group that included all the nationalist groups, then he felt insulted by the Romanian nationalists of the AUR (with anti-Hungarian views) and stopped knocking on the doors of the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR). .
What is the dispute between Poles, PiS, Italians and FDI? – Regarding trust – I heard from a PiS MP, but he also added that it is about attitudes. Five years ago, the Law and Justice Party had 26 members, while the Italian Brotherhood had 5 members. Despite the significant difference in size, the ECCR group was led by two co-chairs: Ryszard Legutko (PiS) and Raffaele Vito (PiS), who will take over the presidency of the group in 2022. He became a government minister in Rome. From 2022 to 2024, Legutko and Nicola Procaccini (FdI) will lead the group. Today, the Freedom and Democracy Party has 24 members in parliament, the Law and Justice Party has 20, and Italians no longer want to hear about a Polish co-chair.
There are also positions in the EKR group secretariat, where “the Italians are breaking down and don’t want to let anyone in,” says a person close to the Polish delegation at the EKR.
Plan B
Morawiecki said the PiS had a 50 percent chance of staying in the Eastern Europe region. On Friday, a PiS member estimated the chances of staying in the group at 60 percent. He also asked to remain anonymous. “As long as the negotiations don’t come to anything, I don’t want to break up the group,” he said.
The same MP said that Morawiecki and Orbán “had a very good meeting” and that the conversation dealt with the creation of a new group of expellees. The Hungarians of Fidesz left the European People’s Party (which includes the Socialist Platform Party and the Socialist People’s Party) a few years ago, the Czechs of Ano have just broken with the centrists of the Renew Europe movement (which includes, among other things, Poland 2050), and the Slovaks from the Social Democrats’ SMER party to form a government coalition with the far right. Babiš (leader of the Ano party and former prime minister of the Czech Republic), Orbán and Fico have been accused of right-wing populism for years.
Photo from 2018. From left: Mateusz Morawiecki, Prime Minister of Slovakia Robert Fico, Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor Orbán and former Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Andrej Babis
There has been speculation in the Brussels press that the new group could include, among others: the party of another former prime minister, Janez Janša of Slovenia (currently in the European People’s Party), as well as Waldemar Tomaszewski, an MEP for the Poles’ Electoral Action in Lithuania.
In total, to be established, the group must include at least 23 representatives from at least 7 countries.
The PiS MP declared that if such a “Central European” team were created, it “would be bigger than the AKP.” Without PiS, the number of members of parliament in the Eastern European Region would be 64.
Meloni’s disappointment
In 2021, future Italian Prime Minister Ryszarnicki was proposed for the post of President of the European Commission. There was talk about how PiS was betting on a “good horse” in Italian politics, as various European powers were looking for strong local partners. This happened when the small FDI party was introduced into the halls of European politics, and today the Italian party is considered at least ungrateful to Polish partners, if not disappointing.
Meloni’s criticism also concerns her relationship with the European People’s Party and Ursula von der Leyen. – Two days ago, there were rumors about Meloni’s move to the EPP, fueled by the Italians, says the PiS MP, who is clearly fed up with them. In the European Council, the Italian Prime Minister did not vote against von der Leyen (like Orban), but he abstained. For her, the game is now about the next commissioner from Italy, and for PiS? – There is no doubt about von der Leyen’s support in the European Parliament, says the frustrated long-time MEP.
What does it matter? Von der Leyen hasn’t opened the champagne yet
Are these just idle parliamentary games of no importance? not exactly. The political position of each political leader in the European Council must be strengthened by a strong support base in the European Parliament. Emmanuel Macron has his own group to renew Europe, and when information emerged a few days ago that the ECR group would be larger than Macron’s, Meloni’s position was strengthened.
Emmanuel Macron and Giorgia Meloni during the G7 meeting
In the European Council, Meloni lost to a strong coalition consisting of the European People’s Party, Social Democrats and centrists. Negotiations on the division of positions were led by Donald Tusk with the Prime Minister of Greece on behalf of the largest party, the European People’s Party, along with the leaders of Germany and Spain (social democrats), France and the Netherlands (centrists). Together they received more than 20 votes, and the only official member of Meloni’s group in the European Council is Czech Prime Minister Petr Fiala, who supported von der Leyen. Slovak President Peter Pellegrini likewise voted to replace Robert Fico, who was recovering after the attack.
But while the nominations of von der Leyen, Estonian Prime Minister Kai Kallas (the next head of European diplomacy) and former Portuguese Prime Minister Antonio Costa (the next president of the European Council) were nice, easy, fun and predictable at the European level. This will not be the case in the European Parliament.
Von der Leyen has not yet been elected to a second term. Officially, she is merely a candidate presented by the European Council, and the elections will be held by the European Parliament. Here, the President of the Commission needs 361 votes, while her current coalition of the European People’s Party and the Socialists, Democrats and Democrats receives only 399 votes.
It would seem that this should be enough, but five years ago, von der Leyen received only 9 votes above the required threshold. The specialists calculated that up to 13 percent and the deputies of the “von der Leyen coalition” did not vote for her in 2019 nor for her predecessor in 2014. This means that for von der Leyen to be safe, she must put up 13 percent of the 399 votes, that is, 52 rebel deputies. Possibly. .
European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen
Ursula von der Leyen could look for support among the Greens (54 MPs), but then she risks losing the support of some conservative EPP MEPs. Alternatively, it can look for support on the right side of parliament, and the closest party there is Giorgi Meloni.
PiS by splitting the EKR weakens Meloni’s negotiating position at a crucial moment in the negotiations. But perhaps Morawiecki launched this journalistic duck only to press for concessions from the Italian brothers.
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