During their analysis, the researchers noted that The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) may serve as a ‘feedback’ to Earth’s climate.The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a global climate phenomenon that involves a warming phase of sea temperatures during El Niño and a cooling phase during La Niña. The Southern Oscillation is an atmospheric oscillation that is coupled with changes in sea temperature.
Scientists point out that if we exceed “The decisive element“We can expect ‘positive feedbacks’ that will increase global warming. For example, lower albedo due to reduced ice cover.”
They add: “While Extreme El Niño Events A huge amount of heat is released into the atmosphere, which will be stored in the layer beneath the ocean surface. […] at worst [uwolnione ciepło – red.] maybe Start the mile seriesThus increasing the phenomenon of global warming.
Meanwhile, experts believe that once the “tilt element” is activated, there will be no turning back. The only solution in this case seems to be to stop global warming completely. In this case, it may take 100 or even 200 years to return to “normal climate”.
It has been revealed. The critical point is an average temperature increase of 3.7°C.If the Earth reaches this point, it will be more than 90 percent Our daily lives will be the occurrence of extreme El Niño..
According to research, we have now crossed the threshold of +1.5°C, and it is estimated that by the end of the century we will reach +2.9°C. Any changes in El Niño It could have “serious social and economic impacts in the Pacific region and beyond”.
The analyses also revealed that four out of five criteria for the so-called tilt element were met in the ENSO experiments. Only the fifth was omitted due to the small amount of data. climate model He also predicted catastrophic consequences if the Earth cooled too much, although this alternative, according to other experts, “does not threaten us” at present. At the same time, the study’s authors point out that “our results should be treated with some caution because they are based on only one climate model.”
We believe that the discussion about Whether ENSO can be considered a feedback element“It should be addressed again and resolved in more detail in further experiments and analyses,” the scientists add.
The results of the research were published in the journal. Geophysical Research Letters.
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