- The issue of ending the war between Russia and Ukraine is one of the main topics on the international scene. Viktor Orban traveled on a “peace mission”, and Donald Trump confirmed that he “wants to end the war within 24 hours.”
- It was the statement of Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko, in which he touched upon the topic of “regional settlement”, that surprised everyone.
- Will the Ukrainian president be forced to continue the war with more killing and destruction, or will he consider a possible regional settlement with Putin? – Klitschko said in an interview with Corriere della Sera
- The Kyiv mayor also did not rule out that President Volodymyr Zelensky “will probably have to hold a referendum” on possible territorial concessions.
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In recent weeks, discussions about ending the war between Russia and Ukraine have intensified at the negotiating table. Viktor Orbán has traveled around the world on a self-proclaimed “peace mission,” and US Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump has said he wants to end the war “within 24 hours.” Moreover, in the context of a possible peace plan, former British Prime Minister Boris Johnson mentioned taking “territorial realities” into account before a large-scale Russian invasion in 2022. At that time, Ukraine’s Crimea had already been annexed by Russia, and there were already parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions under de facto Russian occupation.
However, the statement by Ukrainian politician and Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko about a possible territorial settlement came as a real surprise to many observers. Until now, Ukrainian politicians have largely avoided mentioning a settlement or concessions to end the war. Kyiv has always insisted on the 1991 state borders.
Fight to the end or settle?
“Will the Ukrainian president have to continue the war with more deaths and destruction, or will he consider a possible territorial compromise with Putin? If so, what pressure will America exert if Trump wins? How do you explain to your people that you have to give up some of the territories for which thousands of our fighting heroes gave their lives?” Klitschko said in an interview with the Corriere della Sera newspaper. He also did not rule out that President Volodymyr Zelensky “will probably have to hold a referendum” on possible territorial concessions.
Do such statements about peace initiatives that include territorial concessions from Ukraine mean that Ukraine is open to a diplomatic solution to end the war? And is this acceptable even to the country’s population and Ukraine’s Western partners?
Klitschko’s False Start and Political Settlement
In an interview with DW, Volodymyr Fesenko, director of the Kyiv Center for Political Research “Penta”, described Klitschko’s statements as a “false start.” This is because there are currently no real peace talks, only initiatives and plans that do not necessarily constitute the basis for negotiations. The political scientist believes that Klitschko is seeking a political settlement with President Zelensky, with whom he has been in a personal conflict for years.
– Klitschko raises public fears of a secret agreement. Fesenko stresses that there are no secret agreements, no peace talks. Moreover, a secret agreement is impossible because it would have to be implemented with public participation anyway. – That is why approval by referendum, as Klitschko pointed out, would be necessary, so that Zelensky would not reveal anything on his own, Fesenko says.
Roger Hilton of the international think tank GLOBSEC in Bratislava believes that the last two very difficult years of war have prompted some Ukrainian politicians to talk about possible territorial concessions. “The fact that someone like Mayor Klitschko is talking about it publicly is an admission that the country is facing very difficult political decisions,” the expert says. “Such statements by the mayor of Kyiv may serve as an internal political test to see how much support Ukrainian society has for such a position.”
According to Hilton, Klitschko, who has not hidden his presidential ambitions so far, is exploiting the situation to achieve “political gains” for himself in terms of a peaceful solution. Given that the 2024 presidential elections in Ukraine cannot be held due to the war, Hilton believes that Klitschko’s statements can be interpreted as a campaign aimed at holding future elections.
Hilton believes that territorial concessions would not only be painful for Ukraine itself, but also unfavorable for Europe. “I think most of Ukraine’s Western allies would not accept giving up part of Ukraine’s territory, because that would create a whole series of unsolvable problems for Europe,” the expert says. “It would also set a global precedent for other authoritarian regimes that want to illegally seize someone’s territory.”
What concessions will Ukrainian society agree to?
But how do Ukrainians view possible territorial concessions? According to research, since the spring of 2023, there has been a gradual increase in the percentage of people willing to make such concessions in order to achieve peace as soon as possible.
In May this year, 32 percent of respondents expressed readiness to make concessions, compared to about 10 percent in May 2023. At the same time, the majority of respondents (55 percent) oppose any territorial concessions to Russia, according to a study published by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS) on July 23. For comparison: in the period from May 2022 to May 2023, only about eight to ten percent of respondents expressed readiness to make territorial concessions, while the absolute majority of 82-87 percent was against any concessions.
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