The amount actually spent on housing in October 2023 rose for the sixth month in a row. The Urban.one index rose by 0.20 points compared to September. He achieved 109.10 points. – According to the Centatorium report prepared for the “Puls Biznesu” website and the Bankier.pl portal.
In major cities outside the capital, the index value increased by 0.16 points. – Up to 123.14 points
The biggest jump occurred in Warsaw, where the index rose by 0.53 points. He achieved 120.73 points.
However, prices stabilized in October in the construction land market. After two months of decline, the value of the Urban.one transaction price index rose by 0.03 points. Compared to September – up to 142.34 points.
Senatorium experts expect further stability in construction land prices over the next six months – 64% of them expect this. Respondents. The remaining 36 percent expect the situation to deteriorate.
Developer activity is growing
According to Malgorzata Winuska, senior real estate analyst at Senatorium, the improvement is due to changes in the economy.
– The situation in the real estate market is shaped by factors such as interest rate cuts by the Monetary Policy Board, low inflation, salary increases and the 2% Safe Loan Program. “We are setting new records in the credit market,” says Małgorzata Wełnowska.
According to BIK Bank, in October banks granted 24.13 thousand. Loans worth PLN 9.73 billion. The average value of the loan granted also increased – in October it amounted to about PLN 403,000. PLN was more than 2 percent. Higher than the previous month. On a monthly basis, the number of loans granted increased by 43.3%, while the total amount of loans granted reached 37%. Higher than in September.
– Increased demand encourages developers to be more active, which is reflected in data from the Central Bureau of Statistics. For another month in a row, it is clear that the investment machine is slowly gaining momentum, says Malgorzata Wielnowska.
According to the Central Bureau of Statistics, in October, construction began over 19.7 thousand. Apartments, which is 3.3 percent more than a month ago and 45.3 percent. r/r. The number of building permits issued also increased to approximately 24.1 thousand. Apartments in October. This is 3.9 percent. More than in September, by 16.9 percent. More than in the same period last year.
Market specialists participating in this edition of the Senatorium report expect that the economic conditions affecting the residential real estate market will stabilize during the first half of next year. This is the opinion of 64% and 18%. It predicts improvement and deterioration.
Offer prices vary
The quick indicator shows that bid prices fluctuate.
– This is due to the actions of developers who are trying hard to take advantage of the additional demand generated by the 2% Safe Loan Program. In cities where offer prices have been adjusted downwards, we have observed greater developer activity in offering new projects, says Malgorzata Wilonowska.
According to Centatorium, in Wroclaw, asking prices are increasing in both the primary and secondary markets, while in Krakow and Gdańsk they slightly decreased in the primary market (1.5%) and increased in the secondary market (2.5%). In Gdynia, the opposite phenomenon was observed – the average prices of developed apartments increased by 4%, while prices of used apartments decreased by 2.6%. Poznań and Łódź remained among the locations where apartment prices remained almost unchanged during the month – the differences compared to the previous month did not exceed 0.5%.
In Warsaw, offers on the secondary market in October rose by 3%. M/M, and at the primary level by 2%. minimum.
– The structure of shows has changed a lot. Over the past six months, the share of apartments offered in the capital has decreased to 800 thousand. Zloty. While developers in the primary market are trying to supplement the offer with new investments in the popular sector, especially with a 2% loan, in the secondary market we observe a systematic decline in the share of the cheapest apartments, says Malgorzata Filonowska.
Belief in stability is growing
The majority of experts (64%) asked in this edition of the Senatorium report about changes in apartment prices in the next six months expect prices to rise. The majority of the rest believe that prices will remain stable (27%). A month ago, 75% expected an increase. Specialists asked for Senatorium, and only 16 percent expected stability.
Marcin Crason, housing market expert at Otodom Analytics, draws attention to the recovery on the supply side.
The improvement in sales was accompanied by an increase in the number of apartments on the market. Otodom Analytics data shows that in October there were more than 5.3 thousand of them, almost the same number that were sold. Everything indicates that November will also be a month of balance. Balance is conducive to making calm purchasing decisions and planning business activities. For now, it looks like things will be calmer for at least a few months, which should, on the one hand, improve the mood and, on the other hand, slow down the rapid price increases of recent months, says Marcin Craciun.
However, Michal Kopecky, head of Omega Asset Management and expert of the Polish Chamber of Commerce’s Real Estate Commission, sees no signs of balancing. He compares the current market fever caused by a 2% secure loan to the situation in 2007-2009, when rates changed almost overnight.
– This is not normal market behavior, but given the weak sales in Q3 2022 and early 2023, everyone wants their own 5 minutes. Due to the absolute drought, it became necessary to offer new designs for sale. Let’s hope it doesn’t end up like it did in 2009, when prices fell by up to 20% after the collapse of Lehman Brothers and the outbreak of the global financial crisis. It was more profitable to lose the first installment by 5-10%. To continue the contract with the developer. It is worth keeping this anniversary in mind in the coming months, warns Michal Kopecky.
