According to experts at Goldman Sachs (GS), in the coming months, inflation in Central and Eastern European countries will continue to rise, mainly due to the underlying effects and the increase in food and energy prices.
As we read in the GS commentary on Monday, the bank expects that “the final September inflation reading in Poland will confirm preliminary estimates which showed inflation increasing 0.3 percentage point to 5.8% y/y.”
Analysts expect food prices to continue to rise in the coming months, which will lead to inflation exceeding 6% by the end of the year. yyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy
“Moreover, price pressure in the energy market is likely to translate into higher inflation in the coming quarters,” the report noted. Economists also estimate that inflation will remain high for a long time into the next year.
In the case of the Czech Republic, analysts expect a gradual rise in core inflation throughout the remainder of the year. “Core inflation at the end of the year will reach 4.9% year-on-year, and in the whole of 2021 will average 3.4%, well above the Czech National Bank’s higher tolerance range (2% ± 1pp)” – assessment.
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According to the bank’s estimates, inflation in Romania will accelerate from 5.2 percent. up to 5.7 percent year-on-year due to rising gas prices across Europe; Besides the fundamental effects, this will lead to higher energy prices. Moreover, GS expects that food prices will drive up overall inflation. “With several utility service providers in Romania announcing significant price increases in the coming months, GS expects inflation to rise to around 7% year-on-year by the end of the year, and then decline gradually next year,” she said.
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