Oil prices track wholesale fuel prices at local refineries. Within three weeks, the price of 95 octane gasoline rose from PLN 5,000 to PLN 5,312 per 1,000 litres, i.e. by more than 6%. In recent days, the prices of this fuel in refinery price lists have risen by several zlotys per day. As a result, according to data from the e-petrol.pl portal, since mid-March, the retail price of EU95 gasoline has risen by almost 20 grams per liter, and only in the last few days its nationwide average price has risen by 5 groz. On Wednesday, the nationwide average reached PLN 6.56 per litre.
Since mid-March, the wholesale price of diesel oil has risen from PLN 5,160 to PLN 5,305 per 1,000 litres, i.e. by almost 4%. At the end of March and beginning of April, diesel prices in refinery price lists increased by PLN 20-60 per day, but there were also days when the wholesale price decreased. As a result, according to data from the e-petrol.pl portal, The price of diesel fuel at gas stations has not changed over the past three weeks On average it is PLN 6.69 per litre.
Market analysts confirm that the increase in gasoline prices in recent months applies to both Europe and North America. Since the beginning of the year, they have risen by 5 to 10 percent, significantly above the inflation rate.
They also point to a number of conditions favorable to an increase in oil prices. The main concern is about insufficient supplies later in the year, especially in the summer, when fuel consumption increases. They state that during the year, the OPEC+ producing group reduced its total production target by about 3.8 million barrels per day, so global production will decline.
Another factor mentioned was the situation in Russia. Russian refineries have become the target of drone attacks. It is estimated that Russian refining capacity decreased by 0.9 million barrels per day. Specialists also expect a change in the behavior of the Russian authorities, who instead of limiting fuel exports, will limit production. As a result of OPEC+ cuts and changes in Russia’s behavior Supply may begin to decline only when demand grows seasonally – Analysts expect.
As they point out, one of the factors limiting supply may also be the delay in starting the export of Kurdish oil through the Turkish port of Ceyhan.
However, Houthi attacks on ships in the Red Sea and rebel threats against Saudi Arabia remain a geopolitical risk factor, which could lead to attempts to attack its oil facilities.
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