Currency rates 10/04: Turbulence on major currencies! The euro is collapsing! Check the rate of Krone (NOK), Dollar (USD), Euro (EUR), Pound Sterling (GBP), and Franc (CHF) today.

The zloty started the new month stable against the euro, the EUR/PLN exchange rate remained around 4.62, and USD/PLN rose to 4.40. In the core FX markets, the US dollar has been strengthening, and the Dollar Index (DXY) broke its highs last week, sending the EUR/USD exchange rate below 1.05.

• Interest Rate Market – Bond yields have risen from the underlying markets, and the US dollar is near multi-year highs.
• Currency Market – The strong dollar returned, and the zloty was relatively stable.

The macroeconomic environment on Monday was dominated by industry PMI readings, both from Poland and from core markets. The national index was higher than market expectations (43.9 points vs. expected 43.7 points and 43.1 points in August), but apart from a short-term attempt to strengthen the Polish currency, it did not affect the behavior of the Polish currency. Similar data from Europe was not good enough to maintain positive sentiment towards the Euro at the end of last week and after its publication, the single currency began to weaken. On the one hand, the dollar was supported by the US Congress’ passage last weekend of a temporary financing law for government agencies, and on the other hand by growing expectations of an increase in domestic interest rates in November. Interest rates (supported by strong PMI and ISM Manufacturing Index readings) and subsequent increases in US bond yields, which were once again near multi-year maximums.

Check also: Interest rates – what a mess! Will the MPC sink the zloty again?

Therefore, the global environment was not favorable for emerging market currencies on Monday, and additional pressure could have been exerted on the local currency (PLN) by a domestic factor in the form of expectations of another cut in interest rates on the PLN at the Monetary Policy Committee meeting on Wednesday. In light of this, the relatively stable behavior of the zloty against the euro can be viewed positively, which, in our opinion, does not change the balance of opportunities and risks, supporting a weaker behavior of the local currency in the next few days. Sessions.

Check also: Afraid! Currencies have shaken up the Forex market

`

On Monday, in the local interest rate market, changes in yields were slight, the short end of the curve ended the session near Friday’s close, and yields on the medium and long ends fell by 1-2 basis points. In core financial institutional markets, the pressure for higher yields (+4/+10 basis points) returned stronger in US Treasuries, where bond prices were once again near long-term lows. The rise in yields on US Treasury bonds appears to be a result of the temporary postponement of the closure of local government agencies under the law passed on Saturday. The problem will return again in mid-November, which, in the face of huge borrowing needs in the US and signals sent by Moody’s about a possible review of the US government rating, has kept negative sentiment towards domestic Treasuries.

Check also: Currency storm ⚠️ The euro exchange rate skyrockets

Additionally, the market has become more likely to price in another rate hike by the Fed by the end of this year, which may be a result of Friday’s data on core PCE and PCE, which were neutral at best in the face of positive surprises. In the year. Preliminary consumer inflation readings from Europe. UST’s trend direction was also supported by the afternoon releases of the US Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) and ISM, which were clearly higher than market expectations. In such an environment, domestic interest rates rose, despite market expectations of a 50 basis point rate cut. At the Monetary Policy Committee meeting starting today, they were unable to significantly consolidate their strength, despite the attempts they made at the beginning of Monday’s session.

Check also: Currency prices are on the brink! If this happens, the zloty exchange rate will go to the bottom…

Today’s Chart: September manufacturing PMI readings may indicate that the deeper slowdown in this sector is already behind us.

Source: Refinitiv

**************

NBP Currency Rates October 4, 2023: NBP Currency Chart

Average current foreign currency rates in Polish złoty specified in Clause 2 points 1 and 2 of Resolution No. 51/2002 of the Board of Directors of the Polish National Bank dated September 23, 2002 on the method of calculating and announcing current foreign currency rates (Journal of Laws of the Polish National Bank for the year 2022. Clauses 10 and 21):

Tab No. 108/A/NPB/2023 dated 10-03-2023

The above schedule was published on Tuesday and will be in effect until noon on Wednesday. The Central Bank publishes the new currency table every day (on working days) between 11:45 a.m. and 12:15 p.m.