“GDP growth is higher than expected in the third quarter of 2021 In addition to the data revisions, the Polish economy is currently down about 3.5%. above pre-pandemic levels. The 2.1% quarterly increase was above the 1.3% growth forecast in the September WEO. Kuwaiti Dinar. Meanwhile, revised readings for the first and second quarters added 0.6 percentage points. GDP growth for this year. Therefore, we expect Poland’s GDP to rise by 6.4%. instead of 5.7 percent,” wrote the Fitch World Economic Outlook – December 2021, published on Wednesday.
At the same time, analysts pointed out the need to tighten monetary policy aggressively Reducing the pace of economic growth in 2022 to 4.3% (Instead of the previously expected 4.5%).
We read: “In 2023, we expect economic growth at the level of 3.5 percent (compared to 3.8 percent previously)”.
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For comparison, recently The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecasts a GDP growth of 5.3 percent. In 2021, and next year by 5.2 percent.
Inflation above NBP . target
The authors of the report expect this In the first months of 2022, inflation in Poland will peak at 8%.
“With the GDP gap closing rapidly, which should reach a positive level in 2022, inflationary pressure is increasing. October CPI rose to 6.8%, Raising our inflation forecast for the end of 2021 to 7.8%. (from 4.8% expected earlier). We expect inflation to peak at 8%. in early 2022 and will be mild for the rest of the year, However, it will still be higher than the NCB inflation target– Napisano.
This means that inflation in December will be slightly higher than November, when it was 7.7 percent. – As reported recently by the Central Bureau of Statistics in the so-called fast respect.
The report shows that Fitch economists expect CPI inflation at the end of 2022 to be 4.0%.
OECD forecasts Average annual inflation — not from December to December as Fitch forecasts — is 4.8 percent. In the current year, and 6.2 percent. Next year.
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