Half a year ago, the Monetary Policy Committee raised interest rates for the last time. what is he doing now?

interest rates, the level of which affects the loan installments (The greater the demand, the greater the demand of the lenders), the last change half a year ago. Inflation began to slow at the end of 2022, which is why the Monetary Policy Board unanimously decided to break the cycle of increases that had lasted for several months.

The Monetary Policy Committee will meet on Wednesday (March 8) to make another interest rate decision. Do borrowers have anything to fear? i don’t think so. Experts agree that the Board, together with the President of the National Bank of Poland (NBP), Prof. With Adam Glabinski at the helm, he won’t be back in the cycle of pay increases.

– We expect the MPC to keep interest rates on hold. Sebastian Saginj of the Polish Economic Institute told PAP that previous increases had led to a significant drop in the number of loans granted. He pointed out that most analysts currently expect the interest rate hike cycle to end.

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The official end of the MPC rate hike cycle However, it has not been announced yet. However, analysts argue that this has already happened, as evidenced by the recent actions of the Council. Borrowers are now more interested in when to cut rates.

– Such a decision is expected at the end of this year – said the PIE analyst. – Sajnóg indicated that the discussion about possible cuts will depend on the scale of the decline in inflation. However, a lot depends on the situation in the region and in the world.

There is risk to plans to cut interest rates at the end of 2023 Increased prices of energy and other raw materials. This is one of the most important factors that led to the rise in prices of services and commodities in 2022, which made the Monetary Policy Council tighten its fiscal policy.

The main reference rate NBP is at the level of 6.75%, the Lombard rate – 7.25%, the deposit rate – 6.25%. The rediscount rate on bills of exchange remained at 6.8%. And the discount rate on bills of exchange is 6.85%. Whatever decision the MPC will make, Adam Glabinski will explain at a press conference on Thursday (March 9)..

Borrowers are waiting for interest rate cuts, but they already have slightly lighter installments. The direct result of keeping interest rates unchanged over the past few months is the WIBOR 3M rate cut. This also translates to lower interest rates on home loans.

In November 2022, when the market expected further tightening of monetary policy, WIBOR 3M was moved to 7.61 percent. Since then, this percentage has decreased and since January has not exceeded the level of 7 percent. In reality In recent weeks, we have observed the lowest WIBOR values ​​since June 2022.

This decrease may seem small, but it means that the home loan premium is about 5 percent lower. If we take a 25-year loan of $300,000 as an example. PLN, the premium will be about PLN 140-150 less Company analyst statement HRE Investments.

If we also consider FRA futures quotes, we would suggest that the cycle of interest rate increases is over. According to them, the beginning of interest rate cuts will begin at the end of 2023.

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