How much time is left until the end. Here is a mathematical formula [FELIETON]

If we’re curious how long the object will be around, then Minimum knowledge of mathematics We can appreciate it right away. This can be done in relation to things that are important to entire communities – for example by listing how many more, for example can live independently Poland. In addition to very simple things, using the same mathematical formula to estimate, for example, how long the relationship of neighbors who make our lives unpleasant because of quarrels behind the wall will last. So if a person at the festive table wants to enjoy predicting the future, he does not have to invite a fortune-teller to his house. Especially since this could turn into a parasite. It is enough to start the calculator. However, getting to the very simple things can be complicated.

John Richard Gott III

Professor John Richard Gott III, who deals with quantum mechanics and string theory on a daily basis, insisted in the early 1960s that using math It is possible to predict the unpredictable elements of the future, because conditions depend on millions of fugitives. An astrophysicist by profession, he dealt with the “Copernican Principle” daily and, as he admitted years later, became his main inspiration.

please note w Poland It has been completely overlooked that the genius astronomer of our country, apart from the formulation of the heliocentric theory, is also the originator of one of the foundations of modern scientific methodology. For almost half a thousand years in the West, successive generations – first astronomers, then physicists, astrophysicists, and now also: philosophers, sociologists, anthropologists, and, finally, historians, began their scientific works with reference to the universal “Copernican principle”.

Nicholas Copernicus

It is very simple. polishing astronomer He began his scientific revolution by accepting the hypothesis that the Earth, contrary to the dogma of the age, was not the center of the universe. On the contrary, it is a typical and completely uncharacteristic place. Just the ordinary world, like many others. Successive generations of astronomers have confirmed this assumption, adding that there are an almost infinite number of such worlds in the universe. Finally, the famous philosopher Immanuel Kant came up with the idea of ​​Copernicus, and introduced it to the humanities.

Generally “Copernicus rule” It was reduced in philosophy to the conclusion that during the lives of future generations, only a few of us, and very rarely, encounter unique events or phenomena. Life, death, love, fear, joy, laughter, wars, epidemics, etc., although of great importance, are not something unusual. These are just repeated experiences. It is only unusual when an original being ends abruptly and definitively, or when suddenly born with us. Whether it’s a supernova explosion, the collapse of the Roman Empire, the birth of Christ, or the end of a TV broadcast series. The essence of the matter is the unique beginning or ending.

Be a Young Scientist John Richard Gott for the Year Albert Einstein’s theory of relativity, has the idea that it can be mixed with the “Copernican principle” and mathematical formulas. Having made his calculations, he came to the conclusion that since no human being is unique, only a few people have the opportunity to witness something truly unique, beyond the “Copernican Principle”. It was found that 95 percent of the formulas are derived. People don’t have a chance. Only 2.5 percent. It can experience a unique beginning and a completely original ending.

Berlin Wall

When he first announced his ideas in 1969, no one took them seriously. Especially since the young scientist starts from the 95 percent base. He provided him with a mathematical formula that allowed him to estimate when an “original ending” would appear. At that time, the public was enthusiastic about the successive international crises that surrounded the Berlin Wall. This is what the astrophysicist took as an example. Referring to his formula, he estimated it A building dividing Berlin in twoWhich is a symbol of the division of Europe into the democratic West and the Communist East, in 1993 certainly will not exist. When he announced it, he dealt himself with his colleagues at Princeton University, where he gave a lecture. Fortunately for him, he was given the name of an outstanding scientist, so over time, the number of people who mocked the professor decreased. Must.

Finally, less than four years before the deadline The Berlin Wall has been demolished. Then the scientist decided to return to his theories. In May 1993, his article “The Implications of the Copernican Principle on Our Future Prospects”. Those curious can browse through these five pages full of references to different theorems, examples and mathematical formulas, under the link Gott1993.pdf (uni-koeln.de). All in all, a lot of incomprehensible terms and indigestible mathematical calculations. For an ordinary person who is resistant to exact sciences, the only interesting thing about it are the final conclusions. The feeling that he was about to absorb the immortal base of the professor. Gott immediately arrived at something basic. He decided to estimate how long humans would survive as a species. Starting with the fact that there are almost 200 thousand. The years have calculated that we will certainly not disappear in the next 5,100 years (which is very comforting in terms of the heightened fear of imminent devastation). However, there is no chance for our species to exist for more than 7.8 million years (which is hard to worry about).

Number 39

However, the funniest of all is the final formula for making such estimates. That is, you only need to use the number 39 for them.

Those who do math know it Prime numbers are almost a magical phenomenon. They are natural numbers that always have only two divisors: one and itself. From ancient times until today, mathematicians have been arguing about whether the universe has a finite or infinite number. At present, 51 prime numbers have been discovered thanks to the most powerful computers. These include the number – 39.

When asked why she can limit the duration of anything, the correct answer is – damn it knows. After years of creating patterns, John Richard Gott III has just discovered that this pattern is unparalleled. So at a certain moment we take it, then we come up with something that interests us and we make the calculations. However, it is customs duties only taking into account the moment of performing this activity.

How long will Christianity remain?

In order not to complicate matters, we should show it on an example. Let’s take something amazing. We have long been inundated here with disastrous predictions about the twilight and then the end of Christianity on the Old Continent. What does the math say? to the beginning of history. Suppose that the followers of Christ began to take root in Europe from the persecution that fell upon them during the reign of Emperor Nero and the martyrdom of the saint. run out. It dates back to 64 AD. So 1957 years have passed since then.

If we want to specify How long does it take to become a Christian? We divide this number by 39. We get 50 years. However, this is only the deadline. The second is when it will definitely become a thing of the past. Then we take 1957 and multiply it by 39. That’s 76,323 whole years.

How long will Poland remain independent?

Well, maybe something else by the way polishing. Since the eighteenth century, it has existed as an independent state rarely and for a short time. However, after 1989, it lasted for 32 years. So we take the number 39 and do the same math. After splitting it comes out III RP It will certainly remain independent until the end of next year. However, estimating the date in which the Republic of Poland has no chance of continuing to exist (32 times 39) proves that we are able to keep it alive for up to 1,248 years.

How absurd and irrational! – Readers of John Richard Gott’s 1993 article cried. But then mathematicians and fans of mathematical anomalies began to play with the calculations according to the above pattern. After almost three decades, they confirmed that if the calculation was done according to the rules that were made at the time we are in, and then we do not repeat the procedure anymore, then in the future it works flawlessly.

It also features another regularity. What had been happening for so long showed an extraordinary ability to persist. Entities created recently disappear easily. Only by staying longer do they increase their chances of longevity.

A big fan of Gott’s theory, scholar Jim Holt in his book Ideas That Changed the World cites an example from antiquity that stimulates the imagination. Around 140 BC, a list of the “Seven Wonders of the World” was compiled. put it on Giza pyramid, which at that time was about 2.5 thousand. years. “The other six wonders – the Hanging Gardens of Babylon, the Temple of Artemis in Ephesus, the Statue of Zeus at Olympia, the Mausoleum of Halicarnassus, the Statue of Rhodes and the Lighthouse of Alexandria, were about two thousand years younger. And which of the seven miracles has survived to this day? The pyramid of Giza. Everything else fell in Poor condition as a result of fires or earthquakes,” stresses Holt. Coincidence or maybe the number 39?

In any case, each of us has the opportunity to check whether the formula of the professor. Gotta work. Especially since things that we would like to have a close end are in too much. It is easy to calculate when they have passed their sports warranty period and the probability of their disappearance begins to increase. And then you just have to wait.