Inflation fell below four percent. Latest news from the Central Bureau of Statistics

Average prices of consumer goods and services in January 2024 increased by 3.9% in Poland year-on-year. This means a clear reduction in dynamics from 6.2%. Recorded in December 2023 – The Central Bureau of Statistics announced, on Thursday morning, the publication of preliminary data.

Traditionally, in the case of inflation in January, we only learn about the most important price categories, and detailed statistics will be revealed in March with the publication of the final data and the new inflation basket. Reconstructing the inflation basket means that the final reading may change more than usual compared to the initial reading.

The inflation reading for January published by the Central Statistics Office is lower than the expectations of economists who expected the index to decline to 4.1%. This also means that we have the lowest inflation rate since March 2021 (was 3.2%), and it was slightly higher in April 2021 (4.3%). Consumer inflation in Poland peaked this economic cycle in February 2023 at 18.4%, the highest level since December 1996.

The prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages in January 2024 reached 4.9%. Higher than last year, alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 8.8%, and apartment prices increased by 2.3%. Energy carrier prices decreased by 2.1%, transportation prices by 4.4%, including fuel for private transportation by 9.1%.

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The latest data from the Central Statistical Office also means that for the first time since February 2019 we have that in Poland Positive real interest rates yetThat is, the current key interest rate of the National Bank is higher than current inflation (it reached about 1.85% after January). As of October 2023, the National Reserve Bank's reference rate is 5.75%. From a monetary policy point of view, a better measure is the previous real rate, i.e. the expected 12-month inflation rate.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices rose by 0.4% in January 2024, That is, in line with economists’ expectations, but this means an acceleration of 0.1%. Registered in December 2023

On a monthly basis, the prices of food and non-alcoholic beverages increased by 0.9 percent, and the prices of alcoholic beverages and tobacco products increased by 0.5 percent. Housing prices rose by 0.8%, including energy prices by 0.4%. Transportation prices decreased by 2.8% within a month, including private transportation fuel by 2.3%.

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The coming months are likely to see a further decline in inflation. Adam Glabinski, head of the Polish National Bank, said during a recent press conference that the CPI in March could even fall to the central bank's target of 2.5%. However, he noted that in the following months, especially in the second half of the year, inflation will rebound. To what extent depends largely on regulatory factors (decisions on anti-inflationary shields, i.e. the VAT rate on food and 'freezing' prices for gas, electricity and heat).

— Assuming that inflation shields are maintained, inflation will rise slightly anyway – Glabinski said, noting that abandoning all armor could lead to prices rising to approximately 8%.