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— It was a widely expected decision, said the head of the National Bank of the National Bank about the June decision of the Monetary Policy Board. He pointed out that since February 2024, inflation has been within the central bank’s target, but this will not be a permanent situation.
As he explained, Maintaining high interest rates was necessary to bring inflation down from double-digit levels, and remains necessary. The Monetary Policy Board focuses on keeping inflation as low as possible. (…) Unfortunately, we expect inflation to rise in the second half of the year, he said, adding that at the end of the year, with the partial freezing of energy prices, price dynamics will rise to 5.2%.
“Zero probability”
— In such a case, interest rates cannot be reduced. The probability of lowering interest rates in this scenario (partial unfreezing of rates – editor) is zero – He pointed out and revealed that there are not even discussions about interest rate cuts during the Monetary Policy Council meetings.
– Unfortunately, my speech has a very hawkish tone – the head of the National Bank of Japan admitted and revealed that there are currently no reasons to expect “pessimistic votes from the Monetary Policy Board.”
In response to a direct question, the head of the central bank said that if inflation falls in 2025, “lowering interest rates is very possible.”
Adam Glabinski, head of the Central Bank, also spoke again about Poland’s “economic miracle.”
Television, gold and banknotes
The TNB president began his speech by repeating several times that the TNB is “independent.” He then noted that the central bank has once again increased gold reserves and will continue buying until the metal reaches 20%. Protectorates.
Adam Glapiński also announced that NBP will be launching its own YouTube channel. The head of the Central Bank once again clarified the issue of the loss recorded by the National Bank in 2023. He used banknotes and the example of a family keeping its savings in foreign currencies.
Adam Glapiński used banknotes to explain why NBP will lose in 2023.
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NBP
The head of the National Bank, although he did not mention the name of this institution, also referred to an attempt to bring it before the state court. He once again declared “full loyalty” and “full cooperation within the limits of the law.”
interest rates. The Monetary Policy Board pressed for a halt
At its June meeting, the Monetary Policy Board did not decide to change the level of interest rates in Poland. This means that for eight months they were:
Today, Wednesday, the Council set interest rates on the National Bank at the following levels:
- The reference rate is 5.75 percent on an annual basis;
- Lombard rate 6.25 percent year on year;
- The deposit interest rate is 5.25 percent on an annual basis;
- The rediscount rate for bills of exchange is 5.80 percent on an annual basis;
- The discount rate on the promissory note is 5.85 percent on an annual basis.
The lack of changes in interest rates and the likelihood of them stabilizing in the coming months also means no significant changes in the WIBOR indicators. It is important because the majority of housing loans in Poland are interest-based (probably around 80-85 percent of contracts).
A day after the Polish Monetary Policy Board met, the European Central Bank’s Governing Council decided to cut interest rates in the euro zone after unprecedented increases and nine months of keeping them at the highest level in history. This is the first interest rate cut by the European Central Bank in eight years.
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