We begin Friday in the financial markets with information about Israeli missiles that struck a facility in Iran. This comes a few days after Iran launched an attack on Israel. This mood is exacerbated by reports that the explosion occurred in Isfahan province, where several nuclear facilities are located.
— According to both parties, the attack was not major, but it led to major movements in the market, which in turn were neutralized during the beginning of the session in Europe. – Report by Michal Stajniak, expert from the brokerage company XTB.
Although there are many indications that this may be the end of the escalation of the situation between Israel and Iran, it is difficult to take into account Iran's unwillingness to carry out another attack. Of course, it is clear that markets are underestimating previous moves. He noted that crude oil was gaining approximately 5%, but the movement has now dropped to only 1%. We also observed a clear strengthening of the dollar and yen, but the currencies returned to pre-attack levels.
Israel attack. What happens to crude oil?
First of all, the eyes of the financial world are turning to the oil market. On New York's main fuel exchange, prices initially rose sharply. A barrel of West Texas Intermediate crude for May deliveries It was worth about $86.
However, the following hours after the attack bring calm and decline in crude oil price increases. Hours later, at 9 a.m. Polish time, oil prices fell below $84. (+1% compared to Thursday's evaluation).
Why is oil more expensive? The escalation of the conflict in the Middle East means… Increased risk of oil supply disruption. The less raw materials there are on the market, the more valuable they are.
Israel attack. What happens to gold?
Military aggression between countries, as in the case of Israel and Iran, is always a pretext for activating so-called safe investment havens. There are several assets to which money traditionally flows more during difficult times.
Gold is an example of a safe haven. At the end of the previous day, the cost of an ounce of metal on the exchange amounted to about $ 2,380, and After overnight reports from the Middle East, prices jumped to $2,420. This means more than 1.5%. The upward movement, which, similar to oil, has been leveled off over time. When the Europeans join the market game, the cost of gold is about $2,390. Converted to Polish currency, it is less than 9,800 Polish zlotys per ounce.
Israel attack. What happens with the zloty?
If we compare the charts of oil, gold and the dollar, we will see a similar shape everywhere. The first reaction of the market was an increase in US currency rates at the expense of the more risky Polish zloty. But after a few hours, we noticed a slow return to previous levels.
In the morning, the value of the dollar on the foreign exchange market amounted to PLN 4.08 At midnight the price exceeded PLN 4.11. For almost the entire day on Thursday, prices fluctuated between PLN 4.05-4.07.
After the initial rise in dollar prices, there was a recovery over time
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In the case of the euro, prices initially jumped from PLN 4.33 to PLN 4.37Then it fell below PLN 4.34.
Israel attack. What happens with stocks?
Oil, gold, and the dollar often rise in value during periods of high uncertainty. If capital flows to them, it must disappear somewhere. Victims usually include the stock markets where a company's shares are traded. It's the same thing this time.
The most important indicator of the Warsaw Stock Exchange at 9.00 Friday's session started with declines. There's no drama, because we're talking about a discount of about 0.5%.
Closer to 1 percent German, Italian and Spanish stock exchanges are in decline.
Some Asian markets ended the day with bigger losses. In Japan, losses amounted to 3 percent, and in Taiwan, 4 percent. In South Korea, the indicators reached 1.5 percent. Below the line, and in Hong Kong – 1 percent.
Interestingly, The leading indicator in Moscow is slightly positive.
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