Total 3,490 PLN per month – this is the minimum wage for working in Poland as of January. Compared to 2022, this is an increase of PLN 480, or 15.9%. The hourly rate of the New Year will not be less than 22.80 PLN. From July, prices will rise even more, to PLN 3,600 and PLN 23.50, respectively.
– Minimum wage should be a landmark for employers – Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki said when he informed the Poles of the increase. “The best countries to live in are those with the lowest wage inequality,” he added.
The government has repeatedly boasted of its generosity and asserted that such increases as this year were not yet available. And certainly not “in the time of the ancestors.”
Increase or decrease?
The problem is that this height may actually be a cut. How is this possible? through inflation.
True, the Poles have less income (and according to various statistics, there may be 1.5 million and even 2.5 million), As of January they will receive 15.9 percent on their account. More money than they received throughout 2022. We remind you that currently the minimum wage is PLN 3010 per month.
but at the same time It may turn out that the cost of living will rise much faster than their salary. Which was not impossible at the beginning of the year. From January, new fees for electricity and gas will come into effect. Although the government is trying to salvage the situation by introducing maximum energy pricesIt is still several hundred percent higher than this year. Local government officials, for example, talk about it.
As a result, the start of the year may not bring any relief in terms of inflation. And it is not hard to imagine that this percentage will exceed the above mentioned 15.9%. Increase the minimum wage.
Experts expect a peak early in the year
According to experts, it may be winter that breaks records when it comes to the pace of price growth.
“We maintain our forecasts according to overall inflation,” he added It will reach the domestic maximum of 18.4 percent. On an annual basis in DecemberThen it will gradually decrease. As a result, we expect inflation in 2022 to rise to 14.5%. xy. against 5.1 percent, and in 2023 it will drop to 10.4 percent “- wrote economists from Credit Agricole in the last comment.
They have a similar opinion ING Analysts Expect the Worst in February. In their opinion, the inflation rate announced by the Central Bureau of Statistics in the second month of the new year may reach 20%.
“We expect inflation to rise further in the coming months. In October it is possible to break 18%, The peak in February may be around 20 percent. xy.And perhaps even higher – depending on how the Central Statistical Office decides to factor in the effect of freezing electricity prices up to a certain consumption limit in its inflation estimates” – these are the Santander economists.
mBank? “In the coming months, inflation will grow to – in our opinion – Peak in February is about 19-20 percent. The main determinants of the changes will remain energy prices (heat, fuel, gas and electricity from the beginning of next year), coal and … another acceleration of basic prices “- we read.
There is also no optimism in the state-owned Bekao region. Inflation will continue to rise until the end of the year and will peak in this cycle It should take place in February of next year in an amount exceeding 20 per cent. yyear” – These are the estimates after reading the GUS for September. In contrast, PKO BP expects inflation to be over 17%. By the end of this year.
Therefore, it can be assumed with a high degree of probability that prices in January will grow faster than 15.9%, which is equivalent to an increase in the minimum wage. This means that the Poles, instead of earning more, in real terms, will simply be poorer.
So the minimum wage will be exactly the same as we have been observing several months ago in the context of average wages. The latest reading showed that the average salary in Poland in September rose by 14.5%, while inflation in the same month was 17.2%.
What about retirees?
In all the inflationary turmoil, retirees may be the biggest gainers. Especially those who receive the least transfers from ZUS every month. Although we stress: maybe or not.
last Tuesday The government was informed that the indexation index would not be less than 13.8 percent.Once again we will have the percentage-amount mechanism applied here. So the increases will be fixed as a percentage, but they cannot be less than a certain amount. In 2023, each pensioner will receive an increase of PLN 250 or more.
An indicator of about 14 percent. And a minimum of PLN 250 is our commitment. Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki stressed that it could be higher, as it will depend on the inflation rate. So: the higher the inflation, the higher the index. This is how the mechanism of the valuation process is built.
As a result, retirees may be the only real “winners” from inflation. Its benefits are the only ones that can withstand the higher prices. This is especially true for those who receive the least benefits.
An old man who has a pension of 1400 PLN today, From 2023, he will be able to count on an increase of PLN 250, or 17.9 percent. As for the minimum benefit of 1,338.44 PLN, it is already 18.7 percent. Will it be more than inflation? Today it is difficult to say.
The term may play in favor of retirees. Each year, indicators are made in March, that is, after the peak of inflation predicted by bank experts, which is due to be in February.
The question is whether inflation will come down by March. If so, the poorest retirees would get richer. If not, they would become much poorer like almost all the younger citizens.
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