Indicators for the expected indexation of old-age and disability pensions are given in one of the government bills, which have just been submitted to the House of Representatives. His assessment of the effects of the regulation shows that the assessment will be as follows:
This means that the pension index next year will not be as high as it was in 2023, when it was 14.8 percent, but it will be higher than it was in 2022.
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How much will benefits increase in 2024?
How can expectations for 2024 be translated into benefits?
According to assumptions, the index for the next year will be 110.19 percent. That is, it will be lower than this year, reaching 114.8 percent, but it is still very high compared to previous years. This means a high index of benefits, including, for example, a minimum old-age pension of over PLN 160. – points to Oskar Sobolevsky, pension and labor market expert, founder of the Debata Emerytalna initiative.
And he confirms that the government may again decide on the percentage quota index variable, as it was this year.
“It is likely because Elections are coming in the fall, and retirees are a growing group of voters. Given the inflation forecasts, it can be expected that the final value of the March index in 2024 will exceed the discussed forecasts – adds founder Debata Emerytalna.
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How much money is on hand?
If the government’s forecasts come true, pensioners can count on a significant increase in payments from the ZUS next year. For example, a person who is currently receiving a benefit of PLN 2,000,000. PLN from March next year will receive 2,203.80 PLN, which is another 203.80 PLN. It will get a higher amount if the government also decides to implement the quota index, which – as mentioned – inseems likely. In turn, the beneficiary currently receiving 3.5 thousand PLN will receive PLN 3856.65 (an increase of PLN 356.65). Of course, people with higher pensions can count on the highest increase – in absolute terms. For example, a person receiving a benefit of 8,000 PLN. PLN after valuing with prediction indicator will get 7815.20 PLN (ie PLN 815.20 more).
However, in this context, it is worth recalling that the annual increase in old-age and disability pensions depends on two factors: the so-called pension inflation and the real increase in the average wage in the previous year. A high expected index rate is the result of high (expected) inflation, which is unfavorable to both employees and beneficiaries. It was the same this year. Payments from the ZUS have been indexed up 14.8 percent since March 1, but high inflation has caused pensions to lose real value. Oskar Sobolevsky explained the increase in interest in recent years in a previous Twitter entry (marking this year’s March indexing).
