According to the report titled “Retail Store Price Index” was carried out periodically for approximately 7 years by UCE Research and WSB Merito Universities, in May this year. Everyday purchases became more expensive on average by 2.9%. RDR. This is a greater increase than recorded in April – At 2.4 percent RDR. For comparison, in March of this year the prices of the most purchased products rose by 2.1% year on year.
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– The three-month results indicate a change in trend – from deceleration to acceleration of price growth in retail stores. There are many reasons for this situation. On the one hand, there is a rise in production costs and wages, and on the other hand – disruptions in supply chains and seasonal fluctuations. Unfavorable forecasts are also important. When the market believes that the costs of doing business will continue to increase, sellers may raise prices to protect themselves from an increase, comments Dr. Joanna Whybrow from WSB Merito University.
UCE Research analysts report that retailers say that due to the price battle between discount stores, in the coming months after the unfreezing of VAT on food, prices will return to the appropriate level more slowly. However, increasing it at the above-mentioned tax rate is inevitable.
– The slowdown in price growth is only partly due to the struggles of supermarkets. The reason is also the large import of low-quality but cheaper food from Russia, Belarus and Ukraine. Inflation will rise in the second half of the year, we do not know by how much. If the current government does not undertake strategic corporate restructuring with the participation of the state treasury destroyed by the previous government, we can expect a significant increase in inflation at the end of the year. There is also a question about how the National Bank of Japan might act. Previously, he carried out the so-called blank money printing. Right now, we have a reversing trend that is slowing inflation, says Dr. Happ. Sławomir Jankiewicz of WSB Merito University, Prof. UWSB Merito.
The report showed that in May this year and of the 17 categories monitored, 12 showed single-digit growth year-on-year. (April – March 10 – eight). Double increase year on year. It comes to one product group (two in April and one in March). Other categories recorded year-on-year declines.
– The increase in the number of categories with single-digit increases indicates that prices are mostly stabilizing at moderate increases. This may mean that they are starting to stabilize after a period of greater volatility, and that companies are adapting to the new cost reality. In contrast, just one double-digit increase means that a very rapid jump in prices may indicate some stabilization in groups most vulnerable to inflation, explains Dr. Whybrow.
In May, sweets and desserts are more expensive An increase of 12.9 percent RDR. In April y/y it rose by 10.6% and in March by 9.6%. The increasing increases are a result of rising prices of raw materials. Unfortunately, the problems with cocoa and sugar supplies caused by climate change will not go away. Dr. Happ warns that the unpredictability of the weather will lead to further crop deterioration and higher prices. Slavomir Jankiewicz.
Household chemicals come in second on the list With an average annual increase. By 9.7 percent in April y/y the price rose by 7.7 percent, and in March – by 9.7 percent. – Raw materials such as crude oil, natural gas, and vegetable fats mainly contribute to the rise in prices. This is happening, among other things, as a result of the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions and growing demand from China – enumerates Dr. Joanna Whybrow.
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The third place in the ranking takes non-alcoholic drinks, whose prices rose year on year. By 6.3 percent in April, its prices y/p. It rose by 8.1%, and in March – by 9.1%. – High prices of sugar, water, fruit and packaging are the main factor in the ongoing increases. Transportation costs have also increased significantly due to higher fuel prices and fees. In addition, soft drink prices were affected by the sugar tax implemented in 2021. It is possible that consumers began to buy less of these products due to their higher prices, prompting producers to limit increases – analyzes an expert from WSB Merito.
Food additives came in fourth place (i.e. ketchup, mayonnaise, mustard, and spices) with an average increase of 5.9%. RDR. In April y/y they increased in prices by 11.7 percent, and in March – by 15.4 percent. – The dynamics of price increases is clearly decreasing. However, please note that we calculate values from the higher amount. For example, increasing the price from 10 PLN to 11 PLN, i.e. by 1 PLN, gives 10%. It changes. However, there is a further increase of 1 zloty, i.e. to 12 zloty, by 9%. positive. Raising prices by the same amount, but on different bases, means a smaller increase – explains Dr. Happ. Slavomir Jankiewicz.
Bread occupies the top five places in terms of prices. Their prices increased by 4.9%. RDR. In April, this category recorded a year-over-year increase. by 1.4 percent, and in March – 3.9 percent. – Increasing the value-added tax, prices of raw materials, energy and fuel carriers, as well as wages is important. The expert confirms that removing bakeries’ protective shields and rising gas and energy prices in the coming months will increase production costs.
Categories that are becoming more expensive include: For children An average increase of 4.2%. RDR. In April, their prices rose year-on-year. by 5.5 percent and in March by 4.2 percent. The decline in the dynamics of price increases results from the stability of the prices of raw materials such as plastic, cardboard, and cotton. In addition, producers can take action to limit price increases, for example by reducing margins or changing packaging to cheaper ones, says Dr. Joanna Whybrow.
Next on the list is personal care products which are growing year on year. By 3.1%, then stimulants (such as tea, coffee, beer, and vodka) increased annually. At 2.6 percent and on an annual basis, fruit prices also rose slightly by 2.2 percent, meat by 1.9 percent, cold cuts by 1.2 percent, dairy products by 1 percent, and fish by 0.5 percent.
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