After more than a year of fighting, the war in Ukraine has come to a halt. Both sides suffered heavy losses, but the situation seemed particularly unfavorable to Russia, which had suffered a string of embarrassing defeats on the battlefield and failed to achieve important objectives. However, Russian President Vladimir Putin shows no signs of giving up, and his forces continue their efforts to take control of the eastern cities of Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
It would be the right moment for Putin to understand that Russia cannot impose its will on Ukraine by force and that it must seek a compromise. However, apparently [prezydent Rosji] He did not reach such a conclusion, says the ISW.
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In this context, one option for Ukraine is to stop the fighting, even if Russia continues ground and air attacks, which ISW says almost no one is pursuing and which “would lead to a catastrophic defeat”. The second possible way is for Ukrainian forces to continue their offensive in a “very limited way” with the aim of capturing the territory they currently control. But this would “encourage Putin to continue his efforts to achieve a complete military victory.”
The third option is for Ukraine to launch more counterattack operations with the dual aim of persuading Putin to accept a negotiated settlement. Or create a military reality so favorable to Ukraine that Kiev and its Western allies will be able to effectively freeze the conflict on their own, regardless of Putin’s decision.
Ukraine continues to defend Bakhmut, where the fiercest fighting has taken place in recent monthsAlthough, according to analysts, the city is not of great strategic importance. Some experts believe that troops and weapons should be stopped being shipped to Bakhmut and stored instead for a counterattack.
In the opinion of the Institute of Internal Affairs, Ukraine needs several significant operational victories to create the possibility of negotiations or for Putin to accept unfavorable military realities without a formal agreement.
Some analysts worry that even if Kiev and Moscow reach a negotiated agreement that would lead to a cessation of hostilities, Russia will simply use it as an opportunity to regroup and resume operations in order to fully subjugate Ukraine. Therefore, according to the ISW, Ukraine will have to reclaim territories that are crucial to its survival both militarily and economically, and which will be key to a “renewed Russian offensive”.
Although Kiev has repeatedly stated that it will not agree to any territorial concessions, the ISW says that “there is likely to be a line that does not lead to the full restoration of Ukrainian control over the entire occupied territory of Ukraine, which could be the basis for stopping Prolonged hostilities on terms acceptable to Ukraine and the West This line is “not close to the front lines now.”
Above is a translation of the article from Insider US edition.
Translation: Dorota Salus
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