According to information from the Bild daily newspaper. Russia He is working on implementing a new medium-term plan War plan against Ukraine Which once again imagines invading large areas of the neighboring country. Russia is counting on a further decline in Western support for Ukraine – as well as sham negotiations aimed at misleading the world about Russia’s “peaceful intentions.”
Kremlin He also set specific goals for his army regarding new conquests in Ukraine, according to intelligence information made available to Bild newspaper.
The Russian plan assumes that everything DonbassThe Donetsk and Luhansk regions will be under Russian control by the end of 2024, and the Russians will reach the Oskol River in the Kharkiv region.
War in Ukraine. ISW on Russia’s plans
According to the results of intelligence in Moscow It plans to invade much of Zaporozhye, Dnipropetrovsk and Kharkiv oblasts in 2025 and 2026, “including the city of Kharkiv if possible,” according to an insider. Bild says: “Within 36 months, the entire eastern territory to the left of the Dnieper will be occupied (east – ed.).”
ISW She points out that she cannot confirm the newspaper’s reports, but points out that in 2021 the newspaper provided completely accurate intelligence about the invasion of Ukraine that Russia was planning at the time. Analysts also confirm that the plan to occupy the Luhansk, Donetsk and Kharkiv regions by the end of 2024 presented by Bild is consistent with the local offensive operations carried out by the Russian army in these regions.
Experts also point out this The alleged Russian plan to wage war By 2026 fits into Russia’s ongoing preparations for a long war.
Western aid to Ukraine
ISW writes that in its view, the sudden collapse of Western aid to Ukraine will likely lead, sooner or later, to Ukraine losing the ability to contain Russian forces. As a result, Russian forces may move to the western borders of Ukraine.
The think tank also points to a statement by Kirill Budanov, head of the Ukrainian Military Intelligence (HUR), who said that Russia currently has no plans to wage war in 2025. “It is possible that by the end of 2024 – if nothing changes – they will make corrections,” Budanov said. “But at the moment they have no such plans.”
ISW also teaches about The current situation on the front. It was reported that Russian forces carried out local offensive operations on Friday near Bakhmut, Avdiivka and Majinka in the east of the country. Analysts point out that the Russian army has made some progress in these places.
The analysis also indicates that according to Ukrainian and Russian sources, Ukrainian forces attacked the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol on Thursday. Petro Andryushenko, an adviser to the pro-Kiev mayor of Mariupol, said the target of one of the attacks was the Port City shopping centre, where Russian forces store military equipment.
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