The situation in the area of this town in Donetsk Oblast became difficult for the Russians a week ago. Now it’s hopeless. The events led to a serious defeat of Putin’s army and possibly the capture of a large number of Russians. This defeat will be more serious because it will occur at a time when the Kremlin plans to annex four victorious Ukrainian provinces after illegal referendums.
The Russians are surrounded
Łymań is located in the north of Donetsk region. The Russians took it in May, in the first stage of their offensive in the Donbass. The Ukrainians withdrew south, across the Donets River, where the front stood for several months. Ukrainian army The offensive in this area began after the dizzying success of the offensive in the Kharkiv region in early September. The pressure on the Russians has been mounting since the middle of the month. The Ukrainians did not decide to launch large-scale frontal attacks on the well-fortified Chimash region, which, in addition, is located on the edge of the wetlands and forest area near the Donets River, which is difficult for heavy vehicles. Instead, they started circling around the place. You can see it by the blue arrows on the map below. ymań is in the middle, in the middle is a small red edge representing the area controlled by Russia.
The situation in the Chimash district on the morning of September 30. You can see that the only escape route for the Russians from the cauldron is through a flat, open area that the Ukrainians could easily shoot at. Militaryland.net’s photo
Even according to Russian sources, this entire performance is virtually cut off from the rest of the territory controlled by the Russian army in the East. The Ukrainians will have the only escape route through the village of Zarechen in sight and shooting. The Russians remaining in the area around Shema had to withdraw into the city to defend themselves to the end. Instead, he tried to somehow escape to the east. There will be the remnants of the 144th Motorized Motorized Division, BARS reserve units and the Luhansk militia. Even several thousand people. We’ll probably find out by the end of the weekend how they do it. Pulling out on the way under fire, across open and flat terrain, should mean heavy losses. If it is possible at all.
A recording from a Ukrainian drone shows an escape attempt by a group of Russians from the Chima region to the east.
The more confident annihilation of the Russian group defending Limania may have been the beginning of another major Russian retreat to the east. At the same time, to circle this city, the Ukrainians are systematically heading north of it, occupying the area between the Oskich and Serybek rivers. There are also battles in the city area 70 kilometers to the north KobyanskPartly captured by the Ukrainians during the offensive at the beginning of the month. They are now gradually occupying other towns in the area. Further successes of the Ukrainians in this direction will mean their return to the Luhansk region, which is now almost completely controlled by the Russians. This will be a huge blow to the Kremlin’s propaganda statements about the “liberation” of Donbass. This area is sure to become in the near future the one that attracts the most attention.
The situation on the borders of the Kharkiv and Lugansk states. Through the Łymania region, the Ukrainians cross the Oskich River, where there is now a front. The Russians may withdraw east. After that, the town of Swatowo, which appears on the right edge of the map, will become the main point Militaryland.net’s photo
In the Chersoń region, the pace has slowed
Battles also continue in other areas of Donbass, in particular Bakhmut and Donetsk. In the vicinity of the first town, the Russians stubbornly attack the Ukrainian fortifications and, at the cost of heavy losses, advance methodically, albeit slowly. This is the area of responsibility of the Wagner Mercenary Group, which made it obvious that it was a point of honor to succeed here. Regardless of the losses and the general strategic situation of the Russian army. Even if they manage to capture Bashmut, which is unlikely in the coming weeks or even months, it will not be a decisive success for anything. There is no chance of any encirclement or destruction of the Ukrainian forces defending themselves in this area, which would be significant. There is also no chance of any malfunction in the front. Then there are more Ukrainian fortified positions, and the Ukrainians agreed to give up kilometers of land for months, on the condition that the Russians bleed more than they did. The Wagner Group plays stubbornly on the Ukrainian goal in the long run. Tens of kilometers to the north in the region of Limania, the Russian front is crumbling, and they are storming the well-fortified Ukrainians with a determination worthy of a better cause.
The situation in the Bakhmut region. As of September 29 Militaryland.net’s photo
The Russians and their Donetsk militia are doing the same in the Donetsk region. They are systematically attacking, in several directions, the powerful Ukrainian positions that have been built since the first phase of the conflict in 2014-2015. They haven’t had much success since the beginning of August. In recent weeks, the Ukrainians have also attempted to carry out a few small attacks in this region, and further south at the intersection of Donetsk and Zaporizhia states. However, it also didn’t work. However, there were photos and recordings of Ukrainian losses. At least one T-72 tank captured (maybe at some point polishing) and several armored personnel carriers from Western supplies.
The fighting waned in the Kherson region. It seems that the Ukrainians have stopped trying to attack Russian positions with greater force. Apparently, after nearly two months of fighting, they had exhausted their available forces and did not want to subject them to even greater losses. Despite serious problems with supplies, the Russians remain in place. Deliveries along the Dnieper somehow pass through barges, helicopters, and possibly the temporarily reconstructed crossing over the Kakhovka Dam. There are no prospects for a sudden collapse of the Russian defense in the Kherson Territory and its imminent liberation.
The situation in the Cherso region has not changed significantly for several weeks. As of September 29 Militaryland.net’s photo
It remains a moot point as to whether the Ukrainians want to attract as many Russians there as possible and tie them to a fight in a difficult place for them, or whether they hope for tangible success and the disintegration of the Russian grouping in the West. Dnieper Bank. The first will be supported by the relative scarcity of the forces participating in the offensive and the subsequent launching of stronger attacks in the Kharkiv region. However, it is also possible that the Ukrainians overestimated the impact of their attacks on bridges and crossings across the Dnieper, and on the Russian hinterland in the region in general.
Annexation without site monitoring
Involvement in the Ukrainian offensive in the Kherson region does not change the fact that the Russians generally lost the initiative in the war. Now it is the Ukrainians who attack, shoot and decide where the main focus is. The Russians must respond, wait, and defend themselves. And this has a special dimension in a situation where the Kremlin, on the basis of illegal and completely unreliable referendums, wants to merge the four Ukrainian states into Russia. The Russians control almost all of the Lugansk region, although the Ukrainians are about to change that due to successes in the Lyman region. The Kherson region is also almost complete, but the position of the Russian troops there is fragile. Zaporizhia Oblast is at about 60 percent and nothing indicates that it will be more. Donetsk Oblast is almost in half, and here, too, nothing indicates a significant change in this situation.
Downing of a Ukrainian Su-24 bomber in the Kherson region
The weakness of the Russians is mainly due to the weakness of their strength. After heavy losses in the first months of the war, most of the Russian forces were severely depleted. The Ukrainian strategy of not paying too much attention to the region itself, but above all killing as many Russians as possible, has proven to be successful. Especially since Russia has not yet been able to effectively compensate for these losses. Various attempts to attract money to the ministry resulted in a small number of volunteers.
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Ongoing long-term mobilization can fill these gaps. Although the quality of these restorations would be highly questionable, or indeed certainly low. New packaged units will also be of lower quality and lower potential. Will this be enough to stop the Ukrainians? It is impossible to pass judgment at the moment. Sure enough, hundreds of thousands of people mobilized help Putin prolong the war, but they will pay for it with heavy casualties.
Threats to use nuclear weapons remain dangerously unknown. Whether the Kremlin is serious about them, unfortunately, we’ll have a chance to find out soon. today put it in It is the annexation of the territories between Donetsk and Lugansk, among other things, and at their junction the battles of Lyman take place, which will inevitably end in the defeat of the Russians and the loss of a large area. The risk of a rapid response with a nuclear attack is fairly low. However, it cannot be excluded that one day the desperate Kremlin will use this option. The Ukrainian military does not seem to want to stop.
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