The world is waiting for a breakthrough move from the United States. Experts are almost certain when it will happen.

According to PIE analysis, “The latest data suggests that price pressure is clearly weakening. The market has become convinced that The Federal Reserve will decide to ease monetary policy already in September.” Experts point out that such a move is also suggested by recent statements by members of the Federal Open Market Committee.

The authors of the report confirm that “US inflation readings over the past two months have been lower than expected. In June, inflation fell from 3.3% to 3.0%, and core inflation fell from 3.4% to 3.3%.” The PIE notes that these are “the lowest results in more than three years.” According to experts, “Such data suggests that pricing pressure has eased.Which increases the belief that the Federal Reserve will ease monetary policy.

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The Polish Economic Institute draws attention to the growing likelihood of a US interest rate cut in September. “The data suggest that the probability of such a decision is about 90 percent,” analysts write. Experts stress that positive data and statements from Federal Reserve members, including the president of the Chicago Fed and the president of San Francisco, indicate that conditions are favorable for easing monetary policy..

The PIE website also quotes the US Federal Reserve Chairman, who “expressed his belief in this.” Inflation is heading towards the target level of 2%.“This is confirmed, in his opinion, by the latest data,” according to experts. These statements issued by the Federal Reserve have boosted US bonds.

PIE analysts point to the impact of the Fed’s communications on financial markets. The report’s authors write that “Treasury yields have been rising for most of the year. “Expectations of the size of the cuts have been systematically declining,” experts note. “Fed representatives indicated in June that they expected One rate cut in 2024 and four in 2025“.”

“At the beginning of the year, market expectations were for up to seven cuts this year,” PIE notes. However, as analysts note, “the uptrend may be over. Following the inflation data, the dollar weakened and the benchmark’s two-year yield fell by 0.12 percentage points to 4.51 percent.”

PIE experts expect interest rate cuts in the US and the eurozone to impact the zloty exchange rate.The authors of the report claim that “despite the easing of monetary policy by the most important central banks, the level of interest rates in Poland will remain unchanged. Such a discrepancy will favor further strengthening of the zloty.”