ING BSK analysts in their latest report provided the following: Pessimistic forecast for the Polish currency For the post-holiday period. “After the holiday, we are afraid of one thing weakening of the zloty“We see a risk of a strengthening dollar and a general deterioration in sentiment towards emerging market currencies,” wrote experts at ING magazine, drawing attention to disappointing economic data from both the eurozone and Poland, as well as a softening of the tone from the Monetary Policy Council.
ING BSK analysts also point out: potential threat to foreign policyIn their view, the potential rise in support for Donald Trump could negatively impact emerging market currencies, including the Polish zloty. The policy proposed by the former US president is seen as unfavorable for this sector of the currency market.
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Polish zloty may lose value
Despite the expected weakness, experts from ING BSK said: They do not expect a sharp decline in the value of the zloty.“For now, we do not assume a breakout above 4.35. Global risks are already at least partly embedded in prices,” analysts said. They noted that despite some softening of the rhetoric by the Monetary Policy Council, interest rates in Poland at the start of the year are likely to remain relatively high compared to core markets.
Analysts also pointed out that Investors are currently refraining from taking larger positions. To strengthen the Polish zloty, despite the noticeable weakness of the US dollar. Experts expect that if the EUR/USD exchange rate falls, the euro against the zloty may quickly return to the level above 4.30.
Short term forecast for the Zloty exchange rate
In the near future, ING BSK analysts Indicates possible fluctuations in the zloty exchange rate.“The latest data and comments from the Monetary Policy Board have raised expectations about the size of the country’s interest rate cuts in the coming quarters. Currently, the first target level is around 4.29, but there is a risk of a return to around 4.33,” the experts said in their report. “(The recent peak on EUR/PLN) is on the horizon for about two weeks.”
It is worth noting that the time of publishing the report is Tuesday at 10:29. The exchange rate of the Polish zloty against the euro was 4.28..
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