There should be no doubt – the so-called Current Consumer Confidence Index (BWUK) at -38.1 is still a very poor result, one of the worst results in more than 20 years of research history. Less even after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic. It indicates that Polish consumer sentiment is decidedly negative.
BWUK consists of Poles’ assessments of changes in their family’s financial situation and the country’s general economic situation (in the past 12 months and forecasts for the next year), as well as the current tendency to make important purchases.
BWUK can range from 100 (when there is idyllic optimism among consumers), through 0 (a neutral mood) to -100 (when absolutely everyone can see the situation is getting worse). Since it is -38.1, it means that we are very far from optimistic. Let’s add that BWUK has consistently had negative values since 2020.
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The mood of the Poles is bad, but it is the best for several months
However, it’s not hard to notice that something has shiver a little for the better. Since the October data set a historic low – BWUK hit -45.5 – there have been increases in three consecutive months. In short – we are still in a very slight mood, but not as catastrophic as in the second half of 2022.
The index’s reading for January was the highest since April of last year, and BWUK’s individual components are the best (although — let’s repeat, still pretty bad) for many months.
Also, the so-called headline consumer confidence index hit its highest level since April 2022 (-27.6). WWUK only compiles our assessments of the future – specifically, the situation of our household, the overall economic situation of the country, trends in unemployment and savings opportunities money (All for the next 12 months).
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The predicted end of the world did not come.
Why are our moods, though still cleaning the bottom, sticking their heads over the silt? Picao economists attribute this, among other things, to the fact that various economic extreme scenarios did not materialize, for example in terms of the availability of energy sources, their the prices and demand.
He was talking about it In the recent “Sroczyński interview” in Gazeta.pl Marcin Dumas, Founder and President of IBRiS – Market Institute and Social Research Foundation.
In 2022, the Poles faced a lot of unfulfilled fears. The declared end of the world did not happen, because there is coal, and there is also gas. (…) ‘Expensive? OK, but why are you talking about it over and over again? We are not ready to worry and panic as much as we have in the past year
Duma said.
Going back to the Central Statistical Office data on consumer confidence, these are the economists in peacekeeping operations bank Polskiego noted that January inflation expectations and consumer concerns about rising unemployment fell slightly. Here, however, it should be noted that the reading of the sub-index for assessing the change in the level of unemployment for the next year, although it improved compared to the last quarter of 2022, is the worst since September of last year. Only in the first year of the pandemic was it at much worse levels.
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There is light in the black tunnel
There is a good chance that the biggest wave of fear is behind us right now
– Comments Ignacy Morawski, Chief Economist at “Puls Biznesu”. He points out that in recent months, with data pouring in that there may be no recession at all in Poland or Europe, or that it will be relatively shallow, The Poles’ extreme pessimism changed to moderate. – For example, the percentage of people who believe that the situation in the country will be much worse than it is now is declining, – Murawski notes.
The chief economist of “Puls Biznesu” explains that the mood of consumers affects, among other things, the demand for durable equipment, such as furniture. Some companies in these industries are currently experiencing a sharp decline in sales volumes.
The share of consumers who indicated they will incur expenses for apartment/home renovation and upgrading in the next year increased from 11.2 to 11.8 percent during the quarter. The movement is small, but at least there has been a reversal of the negative trend
– notes Morawski, summarizing that “it all adds up to a picture of an economy that looks like a black tunnel with an increasingly visible light at the end.”
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How much do we earn and how much will we earn, how are pensions formed, what about unemployment in Poland, what are the trends in the labor market and what changes is the government preparing? Read more about these topics at the following link: next.gazeta.pl/praca
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