They are supposed to give them an advantage. Yet they are still using 50 year old weapons.

By the end of the decade, the new LGM-30A Sentinel intercontinental ballistic missile will enter service with the U.S. Air Force. It is intended to replace the aging Minuteman missiles. This program is one of the keys to the future of America’s strategic nuclear deterrent, and forms the ground-based foundation of the nuclear triad.

In addition to land-based ballistic missiles, the Americans also have shorter-range ballistic missiles, but they are launched from specially designed nuclear-powered submarines. They also have an air component in the form of atomic bombs (actually thermonuclear bombs) and cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.

The Minuteman missile family has been in service since 1962, with the LGM-30G Minuteman III currently in service (its first version entered service in 1970). It is the only variant used by the United States Air Force (USAF), which is responsible for both the ground and air components of the triad.

Boeing’s intercontinental ballistic missiles have a range of 14,000 km and a maximum range of 1,100 km. In the final stage of the journey, the third stage can reach speeds of up to 28,000 km/h. The Minuteman III is equipped with a MIRV system, allowing more than one (up to three) warhead carrier (RV) to be carried and launched independently in different directions. Their number was limited to one as a result of the 1993 START II disarmament treaty, although in reality most Minutemen were not modified until 2010 (or perhaps longer).

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No wonder the United States is the only one to have ratified the treaty. The Mk 12 RVs with the W78 warhead and the Mk 21 with the W87 warhead are still in use. Due to their large size (over 18 meters long) and weight (36 tons), the three-stage missiles are launched from well-secured silos located underground.

About 400 missiles are armed with three missile wings: the 90th, 91st, and 341st, all under the Global Strike Command (AFGSC). They also have air wings armed with B-2A and B-52H strategic bombers, and soon also the B-21 (and B-1B, which does not carry nuclear weapons).

In the 1980s, the Minuteman III was expected to be replaced by the LGM-118 Peacekeeper, which carried up to 6 RVs with a higher accuracy at the time (average hit error of 40–90 meters). The missile entered service in 1984, but was withdrawn 21 years later due to the ratification of the START II treaty and budget problems. The obsolete Minuteman IIIs were then modernized.

Currently, the GBSD program is being implemented, under which the LGM-35A Sentinel missile is being developed. This program is necessary because Minuteman III resources are running out (it has already been extended several times today) And because of the need to maintain the scientific and production potential that would enable the construction of such major weapons for the United States.

A program to build a new missile and upgrade silos and command centers began in 2016. Lockheed Martin, Boeing, and Northrop Grumman have been involved in the project. In 2017, the latter two companies on this list were awarded contracts for initial work. In 2019, the U.S. Air Force indicated vehicles and warheads to deorbit the new missile: the older Mk21 with the W87 warhead or the newer Mk21A with the W87-1 warhead.

Ultimately, Northrop Grumman remained in the fight for the lucrative contract, because Boeing dropped out of the project in late 2019 after a major rocket engine maker, Orbital ATK, was bought by a competitor. The winner had something to fight for. The contract is worth $13.3 billion, and the program’s total value is expected to reach $63 billion in just the first 20 years. Until the missiles are retired from service, scheduled for 2075. This value may rise to $85 billion.

According to a 2023 report by the Government Accountability Office (the US equivalent of the Supreme Audit Office), the missile was scheduled to enter service in 2030, a year later than expected. The program’s costs were expected to be roughly within the assumed budget. The US Air Force quickly refuted this optimistic assumption, as it became known in January 2024 that the total costs had risen to $125 billion and the delay to two years. According to the Department of Defense, the costs were estimated in July at about $141 billion.

Little is known today about the missile itself. The information that has been revealed shows that the US Air Force intends to purchase 642 mass-produced missiles, 400 of which will enter operational service, replacing the obsolete Minuteman III missiles. The remaining missiles will be used as a reserve or used during tests and exercises. According to current plans, initial operational readiness will be achieved no later than 2031. This means that the first nine missiles will be deployed in silos. Unless something changes, the US Air Force will receive one missile per week in the future for about nine years.

Full operational readiness was originally expected for 2036 (after 400 missiles were deployed), so today we can talk about 2038. Currently, virtual prototypes and physical versions of components of future missiles are being tested in parallel.

Not all tests have been successful, for example, on July 6, 2022, the Minotaur II+ launch vehicle exploded after 11 seconds of flight with the Mk 21A lander on board. However, most of the components have already been developed, although some still require minor improvements. Tunnel and engine blow-up tests are also being conducted. Preliminary work is also underway on the successor to the Mk21 RV family, tentatively called the NGRV.

Speaking at the Mitchell Institute, Maj. Gen. Andrew Jabara, the Air Force’s deputy chief of staff for strategic deterrence and nuclear integration, said the U.S. Air Force does not want to slow or halt the program. However, he noted that restructuring is necessary because the costs of the LGM-35A program have already increased by half.

Work on the Minuteman III successor is progressing well, and if there are any problems, they do not appear to be insurmountable. However, until the restructuring is completed, there is no way to achieve the so-called milestone B, that is, to set a target budget and schedule for the program, based on which the contractor will proceed. This could mean not only more delays, but also the need to keep the Minutemen in service. However, the Sentinel program itself appears to remain unthreatened, although its future may be a bit rocky.