Despite inflation, which topped 16 percent in August, the 14th pensions will be the last money for this group of Poles this year. Inevitably, the weight of attention and discussion is shifted to next year: the expected measure of pensions, fringe benefits – and what is equally important – the increase in the cost of living, whose overall indicator is the level of inflation. It would be the highest in the history of the current pension system and would be around 13%. This indicator was confirmed in the draft state budget for 2023, which the government sent to the House of Representatives on Tuesday, August 30.
This amount results from the method of determining the indexing pointer. According to the applicable law, the reference point is the inflation rate from the previous year (in this case – 2022, because the indicator is set on March 1) and is not less than 20%. Expect wage growth.
It must also be remembered that budget assumptions (in addition, only at the stage before the adoption of the House of Representatives) are one thing, and final decisions – are another. It is likely that it will only happen in February 2023, although the experience of past years shows that predictions were made in a known situation, even if they differ from what became strict law, then slightly, “in pennies”.
However, when it comes to the fringe benefits of retirees in 2023, one thing is certain: In the spring, there will be the thirteenth retirement pension again. This is because this is guaranteed by applicable law – the law.
What about the fourteenth pension? Officially, there are no legal guarantees, since the regulations in force provide only for the payment of fourteen to retirees in 2022. However, the Minister of Family, Marlina Mallig, has repeatedly announced this The government is working on finding solutionsWhich will guarantee pensioners two additional pensions per year: the thirteenth in the spring and the fourteenth pension at the beginning of summer and autumn.
It is true that, on the other hand, it is known that in the assumptions for next year’s budget, provided, inter alia, spending in the form of the fourteenth pensions in Brussels is not provided for, which economists have pointed out, but from an official point of view, it is not It is an obstacle to the payment of this money to pensioners next year, provided that it is guaranteed by a previously passed law.
The easiest answer to the second question. The analogy will be one, because unlike the minimum wage, the laws do not mention two indicators per year – in the minimum wage law, this mechanism is dedicated and intended for times like now – high inflation.
Of course, the law can be changed and the same provision entered into the Pension Indexing Act. However, such a change should not be expected in this year or next. Therefore, it is known that the indexation of pensions, as usual, will take place on March 1, and the minimum wage will also be increased twice: on January 1 and July 1, 2023.
However, it is difficult to predict how high the pension index will rise: 11%. Or maybe 16 percent?
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Certainly, the indicator will be much higher than this year (7% in 2022) and certainly – double-digit, because this was repeatedly announced by Minister Maląg and Deputy Minister in charge of Pensions – Stanisław Szwed. However, it is now difficult to predict whether it will approach 11 or 16 percent. probably that The pension index in 2023 will be somewhere in the middle between 11 and 16 percent.
Let’s remember that inflation in July approached 16%. It is likely to be within these limits in the near future. Unfortunately for pensioners, the amount of the pension index, according to the law, is determined by two factors related to the statistical data of the previous year: an increase in prices for consumer goods and services (inflation) and an increase in wages. .
While inflation is in double digits, the projected wage increase in 2022 (the Institute for Economic Outlook and Analysis) is set at 0.6%.
It follows that if nothing changes, then one should expect the pension index from January 1 in an amount close to 13.5-14 per cent. This means that the lowest pension from the current 1,217.98 zlotys will increase by about 160 zlotys and will approach the level of about 1,400 zlotys per month.
The average pension in 2023 and from the current rate of approximately 2,400 PLN will approach approximately 2,800 PLN.
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