Is the Russian attack scenario on Moldova realistic? “Fact” experts asked what might happen to this small country located between the Prut and Dniester rivers. Moldova has recently taken a pro-European path, wanting to join the European Union and NATO.
However, there is no understanding in the Kremlin of this idea. The reason for this is that Vladimir Putin's regime has the necessary tools to put pressure on Moldova. There are Russian forces in rebellious Transnistria. Some Moldovan citizens do not hide their pro-Russian views. On February 28, Transnistria submitted a request to the Kremlin for help in resolving the economic conflict. Can Russia then invade this country?
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“The Truth” asked experts about this issue. Jakub Bienkowski, an analyst specializing in Romania, Bulgaria and Moldova at the Polish Institute of International Affairs, clearly points out that the front in Ukraine must collapse first.
In turn, Dr. Robert Rajczyk of the University of Silesia highlighted how military forces were distributed in both cases. There are 1.5 thousand Russian soldiers in Transnistria, including 9 thousand. Soldiers of the Transnistrian Army and several thousand reservists. Moldova has a force of 7,000 soldiers. soldier and 12 thousand reservists. But these numbers do not reflect the entire situation. Russian forces are isolated by Ukraine. They cannot replace staff or receive supplies. These forces only have about a dozen old tanks, and they do not have an air force or heavy artillery. Penkovsky asserts that there is no usable airport in Transnistria, or even a chance to renovate it.
There is a Russian minority in Moldova. There are also parties that openly support the Kremlin. – It is planned in Moldova this year elections Presidential elections, and a large part of society is pro-Russian – Dr. admits. Robert Rajchik. However, he points out that Moldova's president, Maia Sandu, has chosen a pro-European path. The state fights Russian disinformation. But it is possible that Putin's regime wants to influence the results of presidential or parliamentary elections.
Some citizens want Moldova to return under Russian wing. – There are areas in Moldova, such as Gagauzia, where there is greater sympathy for Russia. There are also expectations that Russia will come to them one day, Penkovsky added.
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