- Ukrainian forces have already managed to penetrate up to 70-80 kilometers into the Russian Kursk region, and are waging a 12-day offensive in an area that has not been occupied since the Great Patriotic War.
- In an interview with One, the expert lists the picture and the Russians’ military mistakes, but also notes that Russia is preparing to repel the Ukrainians’ attack. In his opinion, the next few days will be decisive.
- The tanks are still in the rear, but the Russians have probably already used the 47th Panzer Division to move from the direction of Belaya and Suga, says one expert, explaining what the next steps the Russian military might take.
- More important information can be found on the Onet home page.
The Ukrainian offensive in the Kursk region of Russia has been going on for 12 days. The Ukrainians have managed to take advantage of the weakening of security on the border by the Russians near the Sumy region. They are also assisted in their attacks by the most modern equipment (especially drones).
Western media have recently received images of bridges destroyed by Ukrainian forces, Russians fleeing their homes in panic, and Russian flags being thrown from office buildings. The Ukrainian military’s goal is simple – to continue the push until the Russian armed forces stop their offensive in Donbas and transfer forces to Kursk.
Russia faces a problem on two levels. “The myth has been buried.”
At the moment, the Russian authorities and the Russian military command are unable to withstand the pressure exerted by the Ukrainians in the Kursk region. As Lieutenant Colonel Maciej Korwaj says in an interview with ONE, Russia is currently facing a problem both in military terms and in image terms.
– The myth held by the Russians that Ukraine is in no way capable of defeating Russia has been buried. The Ukrainian operation in the Kursk direction showed that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are able to impose their style of fighting on the Russians, attack, achieve success and maintain the proper pace for a long time – because we are already talking about 12 days of the military operation – Lieutenant Colonel Korovay, who has been analyzing the Russian military primarily for years, points out.
He adds that the operation in the Kursk region also demonstrated Russia’s military weakness and the unpredictability of its generals, despite – as the expert says -. “General Gerasimov took the risk consciously.” – If he wanted to achieve success in the south in very bloody battles, he had to have the necessary resources for this. Therefore, he stated that the border would be guarded only by border battalions plus so-called regiments from other sectors of the front, which would recreate combat readiness with soldiers on rotational duty. He decided that this should be enough for possible Ukrainian groupings. He did not foresee one thing – that instead of a short flight, the Ukrainians would launch a full-fledged operational offensive of the Armed Forces, which would break through two lines of defense and then launch an offensive to a depth of more than 70 km (in the direction of Soga). – The military man confirms.
“This is a big problem for Russia, for Putin, for the Kremlin establishment and for the entire military.”
The operation in the Kursk region is also disturbing for Vladimir Putin himself, because this is the first time since the Great Patriotic War that Russian territory has been occupied. In addition, the army has to recruit the youngest soldiers to make up for the defense, despite President Putin’s recent promise not to send the youngest soldiers to the front.
– This is a big problem for Russia, for Putin, for the Kremlin establishment and for the entire army, which does not have reserves capable of combat maneuver with the Ukrainian Armed Forces.o There is no longer a trench you can put anyone in, but you must have an army that has tactical awareness and can fight in unprepared terrain with emerging threats. – Lieutenant Colonel Coruaga emphasizes, recalling that close combat and maneuver combat are the highest level of military craftsmanship and that they must be properly prepared in terms of command, but also logistically, in order to maneuver the troops correctly.
-This is a complex process, as we can see, The Ukrainians are well prepared and have been doing it for about two weeks. The Russians have to throw everything they have at it, build special defense lines so that the Ukrainians do not let them slip through their fingers. They have no idea how to defend themselves, while the Ukrainians do not attack strong elements, but go around them and look for weaker points, leaving the strongest points for specialized units – notes Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Kurwaj.
New technologies are Ukraine’s ally
According to the expert, the key to Ukraine gaining an advantage over Russia is electronic warfare capabilities. – There are not many videos showing the destruction of Ukrainian artillery, because it falls under a very large umbrella of radio-electronic defense, which prevents attacks by Russian drones, the expert explains and points to statistics. Ukraine can boast about 1,000 drone flights per day, while the Russians have between 300 and 500. Thanks to this, the Ukrainians have better visibility (online) and can react faster about where to send their forces.
However, there is no shortage of theories suggesting that Russian impotence will soon end and that retaliation for the Ukrainians entering the Kursk region could be severe. Putin’s close ally Alexander Lukashenko is also threatening to do the same, claiming that Kiev is provoking Moscow to use nuclear weapons. Reserve Lieutenant Colonel Korovay does not believe that Russia can come to such a solution, because, he says, “it will not turn the tide of the war, and it will be a sign of Russia’s defeat.”
But the expert analyzed the recent movements of Russian forces on the front and predicted that The next few days may be crucial for operations in the Kursk region.
How Ukrainian Models Spam Russian Survey
– Russia wants to bring in as many units as possible to build up resistance points and buy some time to consolidate their positions. They are fighting against time, which is also at the expense of prisoners collected by the Ukrainians. They also waste time and resources by confronting and attacking Ukrainian HIMARS or anti-aircraft defense elements, which turned out to be just mock-ups created by the Ukrainians. Their mission is to spam Russian reconnaissance. From this perspective, it does not look good for the Russian military, the expert points out, adding that there is one “but.”
– I noticed that there are probably elements of the Russian 47th Panzer Division of the 1st Tank Army in the eastern part of the gap in the Kursk region. It is more suitable for attack than for defense, because it has more tanks than infantry, so it is still standing at a distance on alert. The tanks are still in the rear, but the Russians may have already used the 47th Panzer Division to advance from Belaya and Suga. – Reserve Lt. Col. Kurwaj tells Oni to draw up the division’s line of movement from Soja town southeast along the Psil River to Belaya.
A major move by the Russians. “We’ll see if they can do it.”
—The Russians may want to attack along the Belaya-Suga axis. One arm of the attack will be north of the river and the other south of the river.In this way, they want to stop the Ukrainian offensive, reach Soga and control the Soga-Kursk road. If they control this road, the Ukrainian offensive will end. The expert points out that we will find out in the coming days whether the Russians will be able to do this.
He adds that the Russian march to the town of Soja will be long, and if it is accompanied by fire from Ukrainian drones and HIMARS, it will end tragically. Therefore, Russia wants to weaken these elements of the Ukrainian offensive as much as possible. — So, for several days now, we have been watching Russian aircraft destroy Ukrainian anti-aircraft missiles and HIMARS missiles, and strike the area around the town of Sumy.
Ukraine Sends a Signal to the West and Donald Trump
According to Lt. Col. Korwaj, both sides are preparing hard for what might happen in the next few days. — The operation in the Kursk region is very risky, but the Ukrainians are using it to send a message to the Western world: we cannot allow Ukraine to lose. – The expert emphasizes, referring to the hypothesis that the Ukrainian attack was linked to Ukraine building its negotiating position, and also in the face of Donald Trump’s possible victory in the US presidential election.
– The Ukrainians had to show that they are capable. Americans value nothing in their partners more than their agency, and Ukraine wanted to show that it is capable of fighting Russia on its own terms. This is also important in the context of Donald Trump’s possible victory, because he also likes specific, active people, because he pretends to be such a person. Ukrainians say about the operation in the Kursk region: Look, we are using the equipment that you Americans give us efficiently. -Comments by Reserve Lt. Col. Kurwaj.
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