We have complete data. The third quarter may be a breakthrough. “Back on the path to growth”

In recent weeks, the Central Statistical Office has published a lot of data about the economy from the so-called real domain. Based on this, we can evaluate whether we recorded a recovery in the third quarter.

The last reading is construction production and assembly. Data for September was surprisingly good and exceeded expectations. Growth on an annual basis reached 11.5%, and 11.4% on a monthly basis. – Reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics. Experts expect an increase of half this amount. Peacekeeping operations experts confirm that “even the building construction sector grew (by 3.9% year-on-year), for the first time since October 2022.”

How does Monday’s data compare to previous data? Marta Petka Zagajewska, head of the macroeconomic analysis team at PKO Bank Polski, admits in a comment to money.pl that a big change has occurred in recent months.

Data already available for the three months of the third quarter confirm that it has brought about a shift in economic trends. And The economy is back on the growth path – after two quarters of declining GDP On an annual basis – he says.

Marta Petka Zagajewska confirms what we wrote about in the introduction – in the period from July to September we observed A clear recovery of activity in the construction production sector, Which – among other things and thanks to the impressive results of September – grew at an average rate of more than 5%. Year over year compared to just 0.7 percent year over year in the second quarter.

The good results for the construction industry reflect the backlog of project implementation before the final closing of the EU Financial Perspective 2014-2020. There was also a recovery in the building construction sector, supported by a recovery in demand in the housing market.

– Over the past three months, retail sales results have also improved – although we are not talking about increases yet, the third quarter brought down the annual sales decline to an average of 2.3%. With more than 6 percent in the second quarter. The expert says that the better results for retail sales are the result of lower inflation, thanks to which real income is growing again, giving households room to increase purchases.

Not all the data is so optimistic. – The less dramatic improvement occurred in the area of ​​industrial production, but here too the results of the third quarter were slightly better than those of the second quarter (production fell by an average of 2.5% year-on-year versus -3.3%). On an annual basis in the second quarter).

Overall, available data show that GDP rose slightly in the third quarter by 0.4%, according to PKO BP forecasts. “From year to year, we are taking the first step on the path to economic recovery, which will continue with greater momentum in the following quarters,” says Marta Petka Zagajewska.

According to PKO BP analysts Private consumption will be key to this recoveryDriven by strong growth in nominal income, low inflation, good labor market conditions, and improving consumer sentiment.

The author of the analysis also sees threats. – Economic prospects are still not free of potential challenges. maybe There is no flow of money from the European Union Investments will cool, Recession in Germany And only Moderate global economic growth It will limit export development opportunities, and heightened geopolitical risks may continue to significantly impact business and consumer sentiment.

The above factors mean that it amounts to approximately 3%. He concluded that the size of the economic recovery in 2024 will be moderate compared to historical results.

Industrial production And in the third quarter – compared to last year – it was not looking good. We just had to deal with the inheritance. In July, the rate fell by 2.7%. In August, by 2 percent, and in September, by 3.1 percent. The last positive reading occurred in January, when growth of 2.6% was recorded. In the following months, the readings were negative.

Marcin Klucznik, an expert at the Polish Economic Institute, commented on the September data on Polish radio. He explained that we are dealing with a high base effect. Last year’s data refers to the year prior to the pandemic. According to the expert, we cannot talk about a recession, but rather a slowdown.

The indicator that perfectly reflects price changes is the cost of industrial production sold. The producer price index, i.e. producer inflation, is constantly falling. In July, the decline was smaller – at 1.7%, and in August and September it was more pronounced – the reading was -2.8%. This is a big change compared to previous chapters.

“The poor economic situation translates into a slowdown in price growth. The PPI contraction will help reduce core inflation in the coming months – and the impact should be particularly pronounced in the case of industrial commodity prices,” PIE experts wrote in their commentary.

CPI inflation fell significantly in the third quarter and continues the trend that began in February. The reading in July was 10.8 percent, in August 10.1 percent, and in September 8.2 percent. The data gives hope for a further decline in the rate. “The biggest surprise came from the trend in core inflation, which, taking into account today’s data, fell in September to 8.4% year-on-year, and compared to last month, core prices fell by 0.1%, for the first time in a year over three years – we read in Commentary of the Bank of Peacekeeping Operations.

Payroll data shows that The growth rate slows down significantly. In July, the index reached PLN 7,485.12. Compared to July 2022, the increase amounted to 10.4% and the gross remuneration amounted to PLN 7485.12.

In August, the average gross salary was PLN 7,368.97. The increase compared to the previous year was significant – 11.9%. But there was a decrease compared to July – by 1.6%. We also saw a slight nominal increase, as wages rose faster than the rate of inflation.

PIE experts commented in their comment that the pace of wage growth slowed in September (from 11.9% to 10.3%). They stressed that Real wages rose again by 2.1%. “Low inflation and high wage growth mean that household wealth will increase systematically in the coming months.”

As we previously wrote, the increase in this reading is clear. Peacekeeping analysts commented that construction production in September was a positive surprise. It is not just about the size of the growth, but also about the fact that growth has been recorded in all three major components.

“Even the building construction sector grew year-on-year (by 3.9% y-o-y), for the first time since October 2022. A significant increase in assembly and construction production may impact the GDP reading.

The Central Bureau of Statistics also published data on the economic situation in the areas of manufacturing, construction, trade and services. In July, 7.9% indicated an improvement in the economic situation. Institutions and their deterioration was 21.9 percent, and the general climate index in industrial processing was -14. In August, the index was -12. In September, the coefficient was -12.8